Supplementary Table: GDP_ICRGE |
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Estimating Expected GDP Growth |
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A. Predicting GDP Growth with ICRG-E* |
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OLS |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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ICRGE |
0.002 |
2.41 |
R2 within |
0.016 |
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CONSTANT |
-0.022 |
-0.99 |
between |
0.182 |
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overall |
0.067 |
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OLS with Fixed Effects |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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ICRGE |
0.001 |
1.63 |
R2 within |
0.016 |
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CONSTANT |
-0.015 |
-0.54 |
between= |
0.182 |
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overall= |
0.067 |
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F(16,167) = |
4.112 |
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GLS with Panel Specific Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation-Country Specific Intercepts |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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ICRGE |
0.001 |
2.19 |
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Icoun_2 |
0.006 |
0.27 |
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Icoun_3 |
0.038 |
1.96 |
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Icoun_4 |
0.011 |
0.57 |
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Icoun_5 |
-0.005 |
-0.25 |
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Icoun_6 |
0.016 |
0.79 |
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Icoun_7 |
0.031 |
1.24 |
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Icoun_9 |
0.057 |
2.51 |
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Icoun_10 |
-0.030 |
-0.67 |
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Icoun_11 |
-0.031 |
-1.38 |
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Icoun_13 |
0.008 |
0.44 |
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Icoun_14 |
-0.016 |
-0.64 |
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Icoun_15 |
0.008 |
0.29 |
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Icoun_16 |
0.038 |
1.42 |
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Icoun_17 |
0.048 |
1.91 |
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Icoun_18 |
0.012 |
0.58 |
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Icoun_19 |
-0.016 |
-0.77 |
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_cons |
-0.018 |
-0.90 |
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*Annual real GDP growth is regressed on the first lag of |
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ICRG-E is the International Country Risk Guide's Economic Rating. The value of 100 is the highest |
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possible rating and indicates good prospects. In each panel, three regressions are estimated. The first is |
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a pooled OLS regression. The second is an OLS regression with fixed effects. The third is a GLS regression |
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with panel specific heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, as well as country specific intercepts. |
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