Supplementary Table: GDP_XMGDP |
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Estimating Expected GDP Growth |
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B. Predicting GDP Growth with Size of Trade Sector |
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OLS |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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XMGPD |
0.049 |
2.86 |
R2 within |
0.021 |
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CONSTANT |
0.004 |
0.41 |
between |
0.243 |
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overall |
0.091 |
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OLS with Fixed Effects |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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XMGPD |
0.066 |
1.92 |
R2 within |
0.021 |
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CONSTANT |
-0.004 |
-0.25 |
between |
0.243 |
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overall |
0.091 |
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F(16,168) = |
3.859 |
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GLS with Panel Specific Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation-Country Specific Intercepts |
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Coeff. |
T-Stat |
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XMGDP |
0.009 |
0.33 |
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Icoun_2 |
0.010 |
0.42 |
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Icoun_3 |
0.045 |
1.94 |
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Icoun_4 |
0.022 |
1.05 |
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Icoun_5 |
0.003 |
0.15 |
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Icoun_6 |
0.031 |
1.48 |
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Icoun_7 |
0.041 |
1.56 |
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Icoun_8 |
(dropped) |
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Icoun_9 |
0.067 |
2.68 |
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Icoun_10 |
0.007 |
0.09 |
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Icoun_11 |
-0.011 |
-0.52 |
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Icoun_12 |
(dropped) |
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Icoun_13 |
0.019 |
0.90 |
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Icoun_14 |
-0.009 |
-0.31 |
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Icoun_15 |
0.021 |
0.75 |
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Icoun_16 |
0.055 |
1.65 |
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Icoun_17 |
0.063 |
2.30 |
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Icoun_18 |
0.018 |
0.81 |
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Icoun_19 |
-0.007 |
-0.28 |
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Icoun_20 |
(dropped) |
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_cons |
0.000 |
0.02 |
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*Annual real GDP growth is regressed on the first lag of the ratio of exports to imports to GDP. The first is |
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a pooled OLS regression. The second is an OLS regression with fixed effects. The third is a GLS regression |
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with panel specific heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, as well as country specific intercepts. |
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