Pages: i-vii | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb00166.x | Cited by: 0
Pages: viii-x | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb00167.x | Cited by: 0
Pages: xi-xii | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb00168.x | Cited by: 0
Pages: xiii-xiv | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb00169.x | Cited by: 0
Pages: 403-444 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04790.x | Cited by: 943
GEERT BEKAERT, CAMPBELL R. HARVEY
We propose a measure of capital market integration arising from a conditional regimeâswitching model. Our measure allows us to describe expected returns in countries that are segmented from world capital markets in one part of the sample and become integrated later in the sample. We find that a number of emerging markets exhibit timeâvarying integration. Some markets appear more integrated than one might expect based on prior knowledge of investment restrictions. Other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets. While there is a perception that world capital markets have become more integrated, our countryâspecific investigation suggests that this is not always the case.
Pages: 445-479 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04791.x | Cited by: 360
BERNARD DUMAS, BRUNO SOLNIK
Departures from purchasing power parity imply that different countries have different prices for goods when a common numeraire is used. Stochastic changes in exchange rates are associated with changes in these prices and constitute additional sources of risk in asset pricing models. This article investigates whether exchange rate risks are priced in international asset markets using a conditional approach that allows for time variation in the rewards for exchange rate risk. The results for equities and currencies of the world's four largest equity markets support the existence of foreign exchange risk premia.
Pages: 481-506 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04792.x | Cited by: 122
This article examines the predictable variation in longâmaturity government bond returns in six countries. A small set of global instruments can forecast 4 to 12 percent of monthly variation in excess bond returns. The predictable variation is statistically and economically significant. Moreover, expected excess bond returns are highly correlated across countries. A model with one global risk factor and constant conditional betas can explain international bond return predictability if the risk factor is proxied by the world excess bond return, but not if it is proxied by the world excess stock return.
Pages: 507-528 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04793.x | Cited by: 317
Measures of volatility implied in option prices are widely believed to be the best available volatility forecasts. In this article, we examine the information content and predictive power of implied standard deviations (ISDs) derived from Chicago Mercantile Exchange options on foreign currency futures. The article finds that statistical timeâseries models, even when given the advantage of âex postâ parameter estimates, are outperformed by ISDs. ISDs, however, also appear to be biased volatility forecasts. Using simulations to investigate the robustness of these results, the article finds that measurement errors and statistical problems can substantially distort inferences. Even accounting for these, however, ISDs appear to be too variable relative to future volatility.
Pages: 529-547 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04794.x | Cited by: 48
JOSĂ MANUEL CAMPA, P. H. KEVIN CHANG
This article tests the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in foreign exchange options. In particular, it addresses whether longâdated volatility quotes are consistent with expected future shortâdated volatility quotes, assuming rational expectations. For options observed daily from December 1, 1989 to August 31, 1992 on dollar exchange rates against the pound, mark, yen, and Swiss franc, we are unable to reject the expectations hypothesis in the great majority of cases. The current spread between longâ and shortâdated volatility rates proves to be a significant predictor of the direction of future shortâdated rates.
Pages: 549-572 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04795.x | Cited by: 522
BURTON G. MALKIEL
Several recent studies suggest that equity mutual fund managers achieve superior returns and that considerable persistence in performance exists. This study utilizes a unique data set including returns from all equity mutual funds existing each year. These data enable us more precisely to examine performance and the extent of survivorship bias. In the aggregate, funds have underperformed benchmark portfolios both after management expenses and even gross of expenses. Survivorship bias appears to be more important than other studies have estimated. Moreover, while considerable performance persistence existed during the 1970s, there was no consistency in fund returns during the 1980s.
Pages: 573-608 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04796.x | Cited by: 449
RONI MICHAELY, RICHARD H. THALER, KENT L. WOMACK
This article investigates market reactions to initiations and omissions of cash dividend payments. Consistent with prior literature we find that the magnitude of shortârun price reactions to omissions are greater than for initiations. In the year following the announcements, prices continue to drift in the same direction, though the drift following omissions is stronger and more robust. This postâdividend initiation/omission price drift is distinct from and more pronounced than that following earnings surprises. A trading rule employing both samples earns positive returns in 22 out of 25 years. We find little evidence for clientele shifts in either sample.
Pages: 609-631 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04797.x | Cited by: 737
MICHAEL J. BARCLAY, CLIFFORD W. SMITH
We provide an empirical examination of the determinants of corporate debt maturity. Our evidence offers strong support for the contractingâcost hypothesis. Firms that have few growth options, are large, or are regulated have more longâterm debt in their capital structure. We find little evidence that firms use the maturity structure of their debt to signal information to the market. The evidence is consistent, however, with the hypothesis that firms with larger information asymmetries issue more shortâterm debt. We find no evidence that taxes affect debt maturity.
Pages: 633-659 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04798.x | Cited by: 24
GAUTAM GOSWAMI, THOMAS NOE, MICHAEL REBELLO
We analyze the optimal design of debt maturity, coupon payments, and dividend payout restrictions under asymmetric information. We show that, if the asymmetry of information is concentrated around longâterm cash flows, firms finance with couponâbearing longâterm debt that partially restricts dividend payments. If the asymmetry of information is concentrated around nearâterm cash flows and there exists considerable refinancing risk, firms finance with couponâbearing longâterm debt that does not restrict dividend payments. Finally, if the asymmetry of information is uniformly distributed across dates, firms finance with shortâterm debt.
Pages: 661-678 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04799.x | Cited by: 75
CARLOS D. RAMIREZ
This article presents evidence suggesting that the relationship that existed between the partnership of J. P. Morgan and its client firms partially resolved the latter's external financing problems by diminishing the principalâagent and asymmetric information problems. I estimate and compare investment regression equations for a sample of Morganâaffiliated companies and a control group of nonaffiliated companies. The econometric results seem to indicate that companies not affiliated to the House of Morgan were liquidity constrained.
Pages: 679-698 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04800.x | Cited by: 526
STEPHEN J. BROWN, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN
We explore performance persistence in mutual funds using absolute and relative benchmarks. Our sample, largely free of survivorship bias, indicates that relative riskâadjusted performance of mutual funds persists; however, persistence is mostly due to funds that lag the S&P 500. A probit analysis indicates that poor performance increases the probability of disappearance. A yearâbyâyear decomposition of the persistence effect demonstrates that the relative performance pattern depends upon the time period observed, and it is correlated across managers. Consequently, it is due to a common strategy that is not captured by standard stylistic categories or risk adjustment procedures.
Pages: 699-718 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04801.x | Cited by: 254
MATTHEW T. BILLETT, MARK J. FLANNERY, JON A. GARFINKEL
Previous research demonstrates that a firm's common stock price tends to fall when it issues new public securities. By contrast, commercial bank loans elicit significantly positive borrower returns. This article investigates whether the lender's identity influences the market's reaction to a loan announcement. Although we find no significant difference between the market's response to bank and nonbank loans, we do find that lenders with a higher credit rating are associated with larger abnormal borrower returns. This evidence complements earlier findings that an auditor's or investment banker's perceived âqualityâ signals valuable information about firm value to uninformed market investors.
Pages: 719-737 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04802.x | Cited by: 31
ANLONG LI, PETER RITCHKEN, L. SANKARASUBRAMANIAN
This article establishes efficient lattice algorithms for pricing American interestâsensitive claims in the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm, under the assumption that the volatility structure of forward rates is restricted to a class that permits a Markovian representation of the term structure. The class of volatilities that permits this representation is quite large and imposes no severe restrictions on the structure for the spot rate volatility. The algorithm exploits the Markovian property of the term structure and permits the efficient computation of all types of interest rate claims. Specific examples are provided.
Pages: 739-748 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04803.x | Cited by: 19
MICHAEL F. FERGUSON, STEPHEN R. PETERS
We analyze a simple model of bank lending in order to ascertain what can be inferred from relative denial and default rates about lending discrimination. We show that if minority applicants are of lower average creditworthiness than majority applicants, then, contrary to a popular argument, a uniform, nondiscriminatory credit policy cannot simultaneously produce (i) higher denial rates for minority applicants, and (ii) equal default rates for minority and majority applicants. Moreover, we show that equality of denial or default rates always implies discrimination. In particular, equal denial (default) rates imply discrimination against majority (minority) applicants.
Pages: 749-769 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04804.x | Cited by: 0
Book reviewed in this article:
Pages: 771-772 | Published: 6/1995 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04805.x | Cited by: 0