The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
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Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole
Published: 11/07/2003 | DOI: 10.1046/j.1540-6261.2003.00614.x
John M. Griffin, Xiuqing Ji, J. Spencer Martin
We examine whether macroeconomic risk can explain momentum profits internationally. Neither an unconditional model based on the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) factors nor a conditional forecasting model based on lagged instruments provides any evidence that macroeconomic risk variables can explain momentum. In addition, momentum profits around the world are economically large and statistically reliable in both good and bad economic states. Further, these momentum profits reverse over 1‐ to 5‐year horizons, an action inconsistent with existing risk‐based explanations of momentum.
The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence
Published: 09/16/2005 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00807.x
GREGORY R. DURHAM, MICHAEL G. HERTZEL, J. SPENCER MARTIN
Bloomfield and Hales (2002) find strong evidence that experimental market subjects are influenced by trends and patterns in a manner supportive of the shifting regimes model of Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998). We subject the model to further empirical scrutiny using the football wagering market as our price laboratory. Sports betting markets have several advantages over traditional capital markets as an empirical setting, and commonalities with traditional markets allow for useful insights. We find scant evidence that investors behave in accordance with the model.
The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes
Published: 12/17/2002 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00402
Pierre Collin-Dufresn, Robert S. Goldstein, J. Spencer Martin
Using dealer's quotes and transactions prices on straight industrial bonds, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. Variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes have rather limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this regression are highly cross‐correlated, and principal components analysis implies they are mostly driven by a single common factor. Although we consider several macroeconomic and financial variables as candidate proxies, we cannot explain this common systematic component. Our results suggest that monthly credit spread changes are principally driven by local supply/demand shocks that are independent of both credit‐risk factors and standard proxies for liquidity.