The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
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The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous‐Time Interest Rate Models
Published: 2/2004, Volume: 59, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6321.2004.00632.x | Cited by: 380
Michael Johannes
This paper analyzes the role of jumps in continuous‐time short rate models. I first develop a test to detect jump‐induced misspecification and, using Treasury bill rates, find evidence for the presence of jumps. Second, I specify and estimate a nonparametric jump‐diffusion model. Results indicate that jumps play an important statistical role. Estimates of jump times and sizes indicate that unexpected news about the macroeconomy generates the jumps. Finally, I investigate the pricing implications of jumps. Jumps generally have a minor impact on yields, but they are important for pricing interest rate options.
The Impact of Collateralization on Swap Rates
Published: 1/11/2007, Volume: 62, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01210.x | Cited by: 82
MICHAEL JOHANNES, SURESH SUNDARESAN
Interest rate swap pricing theory traditionally views swaps as a portfolio of forward contracts with net swap payments discounted at LIBOR rates. In practice, the use of marking‐to‐market and collateralization questions this view as they introduce intermediate cash flows and alter credit characteristics. We provide a swap valuation theory under marking‐to‐market and costly collateral and examine the theory's empirical implications. We find evidence consistent with costly collateral using two different approaches; the first uses single‐factor models and Eurodollar futures prices, and the second uses a formal term structure model and Treasury/swap data.
Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns
Published: 3/17/2014, Volume: 69, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12121 | Cited by: 185
MICHAEL JOHANNES, ARTHUR KORTEWEG, NICHOLAS POLSON
This paper finds statistically and economically significant out‐of‐sample portfolio benefits for an investor who uses models of return predictability when forming optimal portfolios. Investors must account for estimation risk, and incorporate an ensemble of important features, including time‐varying volatility, and time‐varying expected returns driven by payout yield measures that include share repurchase and issuance. Prior research documents a lack of benefits to return predictability, and our results suggest that this is largely due to omitting time‐varying volatility and estimation risk. We also document the sequential process of investors learning about parameters, state variables, and models as new data arrive.
The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns
Published: 5/6/2003, Volume: 58, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00566 | Cited by: 1255
Bjørn Eraker, Michael Johannes, Nicholas Polson
AbstractThis paper examines continuous‐time stochastic volatility models incorporating jumps in returns and volatility. We develop a likelihood‐based estimation strategy and provide estimates of parameters, spot volatility, jump times, and jump sizes using S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index returns. Estimates of jump times, jump sizes, and volatility are particularly useful for identifying the effects of these factors during periods of market stress, such as those in 1987, 1997, and 1998. Using formal and informal diagnostics, we find strong evidence for jumps in volatility and jumps in returns. Finally, we study how these factors and estimation risk impact option pricing.
Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options
Published: 5/8/2007, Volume: 62, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01241.x | Cited by: 581
MARK BROADIE, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, MICHAEL JOHANNES
This paper examines model specification issues and estimates diffusive and jump risk premia using S&P futures option prices from 1987 to 2003. We first develop a time series test to detect the presence of jumps in volatility, and find strong evidence in support of their presence. Next, using the cross section of option prices, we find strong evidence for jumps in prices and modest evidence for jumps in volatility based on model fit. The evidence points toward economically and statistically significant jump risk premia, which are important for understanding option returns.
Learning about Consumption Dynamics
Published: 3/18/2016, Volume: 71, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12246 | Cited by: 100
MICHAEL JOHANNES, LARS A. LOCHSTOER, YIQUN MOU
This paper characterizes U.S. consumption dynamics from the perspective of a Bayesian agent who does not know the underlying model structure but learns over time from macroeconomic data. Realistic, high‐dimensional macroeconomic learning problems, which entail parameter, model, and state learning, generate substantially different subjective beliefs about consumption dynamics compared to the standard, full‐information rational expectations benchmark. Beliefs about long‐run dynamics are volatile, with counter‐cyclical conditional volatility, and drift over time. Embedding these beliefs in a standard asset pricing model significantly improves the model's ability to match the stylized facts, as well as the sample path of the market price‐dividend ratio.
Asymmetric Information about Collateral Values
Published: 5/11/2016, Volume: 71, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12288 | Cited by: 114
JOHANNES STROEBEL
I empirically analyze credit market outcomes when competing lenders are differentially informed about the expected return from making a loan. I study the residential mortgage market, where property developers often cooperate with vertically integrated mortgage lenders to offer financing to buyers of new homes. I show that these integrated lenders have superior information about the construction quality of individual homes and exploit this information to lend against higher quality collateral, decreasing foreclosures by up to 40%. To compensate for this adverse selection on collateral quality, nonintegrated lenders charge higher interest rates when competing against a better‐informed integrated lender.
International Taxation and the Direction and Volume of Cross‐Border M&As
Published: 5/20/2009, Volume: 64, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01463.x | Cited by: 178
HARRY P. HUIZINGA, JOHANNES VOGET
We show that the parent‐subsidiary structure of multinational firms created by cross‐border mergers and acquisitions is affected by the prospect of international double taxation. Specifically, the likelihood of parent firm location in a country following a cross‐border takeover is reduced by high international double taxation of foreign‐source income. At the same time, countries with high international double taxation attract smaller numbers of parent firms. A unilateral elimination of worldwide taxation by the United States is simulated to increase the proportion of parent firms locating in the United States following cross‐border mergers and acquisitions from 53% to 58%.
Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle
Published: 1/6/2011, Volume: 66, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01628.x | Cited by: 327
RANDI NÆS, JOHANNES A. SKJELTORP, BERNT ARNE ØDEGAARD
In the recent financial crisis we saw liquidity in the stock market drying up as a precursor to the crisis in the real economy. We show that such effects are not new; in fact, we find a strong relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. We also show that investors' portfolio compositions change with the business cycle and that investor participation is related to market liquidity. This suggests that systematic liquidity variation is related to a “flight to quality” during economic downturns. Overall, our results provide a new explanation for the observed commonality in liquidity.
PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS FIFTY‐SECOND ANNUAL MEETING AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION
Published: 7/1992, Volume: 47, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb03995.x | Cited by: 0
MICHAEL C. JENSEN, MICHAEL KEENAN
Lender Automation and Racial Disparities in Credit Access
Published: 1/25/2024, Volume: 79, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13303 | Cited by: 57
SABRINA T. HOWELL, THERESA KUCHLER, DAVID SNITKOF, JOHANNES STROEBEL, JUN WONG
Process automation reduces racial disparities in credit access by enabling smaller loans, broadening banks' geographic reach, and removing human biases from decision making. We document these findings in the context of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), where private lenders faced no credit risk but decided which firms to serve. Black‐owned firms obtained PPP loans primarily from automated fintech lenders, especially in areas with high racial animus. After traditional banks automated their loan processing procedures, their PPP lending to Black‐owned firms increased. Our findings cannot be fully explained by racial differences in loan application behaviors, preexisting banking relationships, firm performance, or fraud rates.
CLO Performance
Published: 4/10/2023, Volume: 78, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13224 | Cited by: 28
LARRY CORDELL, MICHAEL R. ROBERTS, MICHAEL SCHWERT
We study the performance of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) to understand the market imperfections giving rise to these vehicles and their corresponding economic costs. CLO equity tranches earn positive abnormal returns from the risk‐adjusted price differential between leveraged loans and CLO debt tranches. Debt tranches offer higher returns than similarly rated corporate bonds, making them attractive to banks and insurers that face risk‐based capital requirements. Temporal variation in equity performance highlights the resilience of CLOs to market volatility due to their closed‐end structure, long‐term funding, and embedded options to reinvest principal proceeds.
THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF LARGE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS
Published: 12/1975, Volume: 30, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb01054.x | Cited by: 5
Michael Firth
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1990, Volume: 45, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb05115.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
SYNERGISM IN MERGERS: SOME BRITISH RESULTS*
Published: 5/1978, Volume: 33, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb04878.x | Cited by: 7
Michael Firth
THE COST OF CAPITAL AND VALUATION OF A TWO‐COUNTRY FIRM
Published: 3/1974, Volume: 29, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb00028.x | Cited by: 15
Michael Adler
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF TREASURY BILL DEALERS IN THE AUCTION MARKET*
Published: 3/1965, Volume: 20, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb00183.x | Cited by: 1
Michael Rieber
Fifty Years of the American Finance Association
Published: 7/1991, Volume: 46, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03781.x | Cited by: 3
MICHAEL KEENAN
The American Finance Association was organized 50 years ago. This paper reflects on recent trends in Officers and Directors, Membership, Association Meetings, the Journal of Finance, and other activities. Appendix Tables provide historical data for the Association for the past 25 years.
LEVERAGE, DIVIDEND POLICY AND THE COST OF CAPITAL: A COMMENT
Published: 9/1970, Volume: 25, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00561.x | Cited by: 4
Michael Davenport
From the ExSec's Notebook
Published: 12/1998, Volume: 53, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00094 | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
The Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Rates of Inflation
Published: 6/1979, Volume: 34, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb02139.x | Cited by: 65
MICHAEL FIRTH
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1993, Volume: 48, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04032.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1997, Volume: 52, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02731.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1991, Volume: 46, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03779.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
The Use of Electronic Funds Transfers to Capture the Effects of Cash Management Practices on the Demand for Demand Deposits: A Note
Published: 12/1985, Volume: 40, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02397.x | Cited by: 6
MICHAEL DOTSEY
The rapidly increasing use of more sophisticated cash management practices is a factor influencing the demand for money that is not considered in standard models of money demand. Within the framework of an inventory theoretic model of money demand, this paper provides theoretical grounds for using the number of electronic funds transfers as an indication of increasing cash management sophistication. Specifically, the demand for demand deposits is determined from the solution of a simultaneous equation system that also determines the optimal level of cash management. Therefore, the level of cash management services influences transactions costs, implying that transactions costs are endogenous. The number of electronic funds transfers is closely linked to the level of cash management services and is therefore related to transactions costs. Models of money demand that treat transactions costs as exogenous and fixed are therefore misspecified and will not perform well when transactions costs are changing. By explicitly incorporating the changing nature of transactions costs through the use of electronic funds transfers, the problems of instability and poor predictive power associated with the demand for money in the 1970's are overcome.
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1986, Volume: 41, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04543.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
A NOTE ON DIVIDEND IRRELEVANCE AND THE GORDON VALUATION MODEL*
Published: 12/1971, Volume: 26, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01752.x | Cited by: 15
Michael Brennan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1988, Volume: 43, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04608.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1996, Volume: 51, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02716.x | Cited by: 1
Michael Keenan
THE COST OF CAPITAL AND VALUATION OF A TWO‐COUNTRY FIRM: REPLY
Published: 9/1977, Volume: 32, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03335.x | Cited by: 1
Michael Adler
Investor Recognition of Corporation International Diversification: Comment
Published: 3/1981, Volume: 36, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb03543.x | Cited by: 5
MICHAEL ADLER
A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation
Published: 12/1996, Volume: 51, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05220.x | Cited by: 226
MICHAEL STUTZER
Canonical valuation uses historical time series to predict the probability distribution of the discounted value of primary assets' discounted prices plus accumulated dividends at any future date. Then the axiomatically‐rationalized maximum entropy principle is used to estimate risk‐neutral (equivalent martingale) probabilities that correctly price the primary assets, as well as any predesignated subset of derivative securities whose payoffs occur at this date. Valuation of other derivative securities proceeds by calculation of its discounted, risk‐neutral expected value. Both simulation and empirical evidence suggest that canonical valuation has merit.
Bank Capital and Lending Relationships
Published: 2/13/2018, Volume: 73, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12604 | Cited by: 362
MICHAEL SCHWERT
This paper investigates the mechanisms behind the matching of banks and firms in the loan market and the implications of this matching for lending relationships, bank capital, and credit provision. I find that bank‐dependent firms borrow from well‐capitalized banks, while firms with access to the bond market borrow from banks with less capital. This matching of bank‐dependent firms with stable banks smooths cyclicality in aggregate credit provision and mitigates the effects of bank shocks on the real economy.
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer for the Year Ending September 30, 1987
Published: 7/1988, Volume: 43, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04610.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
STATISTICAL TESTS OF THE KEYNESIAN DEMAND FUNCTION FOR MONEY: COMMENT
Published: 9/1968, Volume: 23, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00851.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Hudson
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1995, Volume: 50, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04045.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1989, Volume: 44, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb04393.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1993, Volume: 48, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04031.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1986, Volume: 41, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04542.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
REGULATION OF THE NEW YORK STATE CONSUMER FINANCE INDUSTRY*
Published: 9/1965, Volume: 20, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb02921.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Kawaja
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer
Published: 7/1996, Volume: 51, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02717.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1992, Volume: 47, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04012.x | Cited by: 1
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1989, Volume: 44, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb04392.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer for the Year Ending September 30, 1989
Published: 7/1990, Volume: 45, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb05116.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
ON RISK‐ADJUSTED CAPITALIZATION RATES AND VALUATION BY INDIVIDUALS
Published: 9/1970, Volume: 25, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00556.x | Cited by: 3
Michael Adler
Report of the Executive Secretary and Treasurer: for the Year Ending September 30, 1986
Published: 7/1987, Volume: 42, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04587.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 8/1998, Volume: 53, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00058 | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Report on the 1987 Membership Survey
Published: 7/1988, Volume: 43, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04609.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Keenan
Minutes of the Annual Membership Meeting
Published: 7/1991, Volume: 46, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03778.x | Cited by: 0
Michael Kennan