The Journal of Finance

Do Market Prices Improve the Accuracy of Court Valuations in Chapter 11?

Published: 2/25/2022,  Volume: 77,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13111  |  Cited by: 11

CEM DEMIROGLU, JULIAN FRANKS, RYAN LEWIS

The average difference between the court value and postemergence market value of newly issued stocks in Chapter 11 reorganizations exceeds 50%. We show that public dissemination of transactions in defaulted bonds reduces this difference by 23% and largely eliminates interclaimant wealth transfers. The effects of dissemination are only significant when the bonds are sufficiently traded around the court valuation date and when they receive significant amounts of postemergence equity, indicating that the bond's value is sensitive to the size and allocation of the pie. These findings imply that security prices have real effects: they improve the valuations of bankruptcy participants.

CONSUMER PERCEPTION OF INCURRED INTEREST RATES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE EFFICACY OF THE TRUTH‐IN‐LENDING LAW

Published: 12/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01754.x  |  Cited by: 20

Lewis Mandell

SOME FACTORS IN THE GROWTH OF CONSUMER CREDIT

Published: 5/1956,  Volume: 11,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1956.tb00706.x  |  Cited by: 5

Robert E. Lewis

FINANCE AS AN INDUSTRY: A SIMPLE MODEL OF GROWTH*

Published: 3/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb00053.x  |  Cited by: 0

Lewis J. Spellman

Deposit Ceilings and the Efficiency of Financial Intermediation

Published: 3/1980,  Volume: 35,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb03475.x  |  Cited by: 3

LEWIS J. SPELLMAN

A NOTE ON THE INTEREST ELASTICITY OF THE TRANSACTIONS DEMAND FOR CASH*

Published: 9/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03092.x  |  Cited by: 0

Kenneth A. Lewis

The Behavior of Eurocurrency Returns Across Different Holding Periods and Monetary Regimes

Published: 9/1990,  Volume: 45,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb02433.x  |  Cited by: 11

KAREN K. LEWIS

Recent empirical studies of the risk premium across foreign exchange and other asset markets such as equity and longer term bonds have found conflicting evidence about the latent variable model restrictions of the consumption‐based intertemporal capital asset pricing model. While studies using data for holding periods of one month or less generally reject the model, evidence using three‐month holding periods indicates that the model cannot be rejected when including the returns on long relative to short deposit rates. This paper investigates the sources of differences in results using returns on foreign exchange and Eurocurrency deposits at three different maturities.

STOCK MARKET CAPITAL GAINS AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES*

Published: 12/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01473.x  |  Cited by: 1

Lewis J. Rosen

THE ADEQUACY OF BANK EQUITIES

Published: 10/1947,  Volume: 2,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1947.tb00794.x  |  Cited by: 1

Lewis A. Froman

A Simple Algorithm for the Portfolio Selection Problem

Published: 3/1988,  Volume: 43,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02589.x  |  Cited by: 12

ALAN L. LEWIS

The author presents a rapidly convergent algorithm to solve the general portfolio problem of maximizing concave utility functions subject to linear constraints. The algorithm is based on an iterative use of the Markowitz critical line method for solving quadratic programs. A simple example, taken from the theory of state‐contingent claims, is worked out in detail. For technical convergence results, the reader is referred to the appropriate mathematical programming literature.

CAN INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS BE INDUCED TO FURNISH MORE EQUITY CAPITAL?

Published: 6/1950,  Volume: 5,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1950.tb02479.x  |  Cited by: 0

Lewis A. Froman

THE AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION

Published: 4/1947,  Volume: 2,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1947.tb00784.x  |  Cited by: 0

Lewis A. Froman

Who Finances Durable Goods and Why It Matters: Captive Finance and the Coase Conjecture

Published: 1/15/2019,  Volume: 74,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12745  |  Cited by: 35

JUSTIN MURFIN, RYAN PRATT

We propose that, by financing their own product sales through captive finance subsidiaries, durable goods manufacturers commit to higher resale values for their products in future periods. Using data on captive financing by the manufacturers of heavy equipment, we find that captive‐backed models have lower price depreciation. The evidence is consistent with captive finance helping manufacturers commit to ex‐post actions that support used machine prices. This, in turn, conveys higher pledgeability for captive‐backed products, even for individual machines financed by banks. Although motivated as a rent‐seeking device, captive financing generates positive spillovers by relaxing credit constraints.

The Effect of Bank Deregulation on Small Business: A Note

Published: 6/1983,  Volume: 38,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb02518.x  |  Cited by: 1

PETER L. STRUCK, LEWIS MANDELL

Option Pricing Bounds in Discrete Time

Published: 6/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb02324.x  |  Cited by: 103

STYLIANOS PERRAKIS, PETER J. RYAN

Upper and lower bounds are derived for call options traded at discrete intervals. These bounds are independent of assumptions on the stock price distribution other than a restriction satisfied by the stock being “non‐negative beta.” The development of the bounds relies on the single‐price law and arbitrage arguments. Both single‐period and multiperiod results are produced, and put option bounds follow by extension. The bounds exist as equilibrium values given a consensus on stock price distribution; they are also valid for empirical studies, being adjustable for dividends and commissions.

EMPIRICAL ISSUES IN THE DEMAND FOR CURRENCY: A MULTINATIONAL STUDY

Published: 9/1975,  Volume: 30,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb01022.x  |  Cited by: 0

Kenneth A. Lewis, Francis F. Breen

Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap

Published: 10/1999,  Volume: 54,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00163  |  Cited by: 729

Ryan Sullivan, Allan Timmermann, Halbert White

In this paper we utilize White's Reality Check bootstrap methodology (White (1999)) to evaluate simple technical trading rules while quantifying the data‐snooping bias and fully adjusting for its effect in the context of the full universe from which the trading rules were drawn. Hence, for the first time, the paper presents a comprehensive test of performance across all technical trading rules examined. We consider the study of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), expand their universe of 26 trading rules, apply the rules to 100 years of daily data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and determine the effects of data‐snooping.

Price Discovery without Trading: Evidence from Limit Orders

Published: 4/2/2019,  Volume: 74,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12769  |  Cited by: 227

JONATHAN BROGAARD, TERRENCE HENDERSHOTT, RYAN RIORDAN

We analyze the contribution to price discovery of market and limit orders by high‐frequency traders (HFTs) and non‐HFTs. While market orders have a larger individual price impact, limit orders are far more numerous. This results in price discovery occurring predominantly through limit orders. HFTs submit the bulk of limit orders and these limit orders provide most of the price discovery. Submissions of limit orders and their contribution to price discovery fall with volatility due to changes in HFTs’ behavior. Consistent with adverse selection arising from faster reactions to public information, HFTs’ informational advantage is partially explained by public information.

DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03296.x  |  Cited by: 0

Lewis Mandell, Harold Black, Richard C. Aspinwall

Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small‐Sample Bias?

Published: 8/2006,  Volume: 61,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00887.x  |  Cited by: 61

MALCOLM BAKER, RYAN TALIAFERRO, JEFFREY WURGLER

Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time‐series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance 58, 483–517) pseudo market‐timing bias. Using standard simulation techniques, we find that the bias is much too small to account for the observed predictive power of the equity share in new issues, corporate investment plans, insider trading, dividend initiations, or the maturity of corporate debt issues.

A Tale of Two Runs: Depositor Responses to Bank Solvency Risk

Published: 11/10/2016,  Volume: 71,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12424  |  Cited by: 173

RAJKAMAL IYER, MANJU PURI, NICHOLAS RYAN

We examine heterogeneity in depositor responses to solvency risk using depositor‐level data for a bank that faced two different runs. We find that depositors with loans and bank staff are less likely to run than others during a low‐solvency‐risk shock, but are more likely to run during a high‐solvency‐risk shock. Uninsured depositors are also sensitive to bank solvency. In contrast, depositors with older accounts run less, and those with frequent past transactions run more, irrespective of the underlying risk. Our results show that the fragility of a bank depends on the composition of its deposit base.

Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long‐Run Fisher Relation?

Published: 3/1995,  Volume: 50,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb05172.x  |  Cited by: 110

MARTIN D. D. EVANS, KAREN K. LEWIS

Recent empirical studies suggest that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move together one‐for‐one in the long run, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article shows that these results can be deceptive when the process followed by inflation shifts infrequently. We characterize the shifts in inflation by a Markov switching model. Based upon this model's forecasts, we reexamine the long‐run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that in the long run nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation one‐for‐one.

THE COMPARATIVE OPERATING EFFICIENCY OF BLACK SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS

Published: 5/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03294.x  |  Cited by: 4

Lewis J. Spellman, Alfred E. Osborne, William D. Bradford

The Capitalization of Consumer Financing into Durable Goods Prices

Published: 10/10/2020,  Volume: 76,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12977  |  Cited by: 24

BRONSON ARGYLE, TAYLOR NADAULD, CHRISTOPHER PALMER, RYAN PRATT

Using loan‐level data on millions of used‐car transactions across hundreds of lenders, we study the consumer response to exogenous variation in credit terms. Borrowers offered shorter maturity decrease expenditures enough to offset 60% to 90% of the monthly payment increase. Most of this is driven by shifting toward lower‐quality cars, but affected borrowers offset 20% to 30% of a monthly payment shock by negotiating lower prices for equivalent cars. Our results suggest that durable goods prices adjust to reflect credit terms even at the individual level, with one year of additional loan maturity increasing a car's price by 2.8%.

An Incentive Approach to Banking Regulation

Published: 9/1993,  Volume: 48,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04766.x  |  Cited by: 100

RONALD M. GIAMMARINO, TRACY R. LEWIS, DAVID E. M. SAPPINGTON

We examine the optimal design of a risk‐adjusted deposit insurance scheme when the regulator has less information than the bank about the inherent risk of the bank's assets (adverse selection), and when the regulator is unable to monitor the extent to which bank resources are being directed away from normal operations toward activities that lower asset quality (moral hazard). Under a socially optimal insurance scheme: (1) asset quality is below the first‐best level, (2) higher‐quality banks have larger asset bases and face lower capital adequacy requirements than lower‐quality banks, and (3) the probability of failure is equated across banks.

Uncovering the Hidden Effort Problem

Published: 2/17/2025,  Volume: 80,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13429  |  Cited by: 10

AZI BEN‐REPHAEL, BRUCE I. CARLIN, ZHI DA, RYAN D. ISRAELSEN

We analyze minute‐by‐minute Bloomberg online status and study how the effort provision of executives in public corporations affects firm value. While executives spend most of their time doing other activities, patterns of Bloomberg usage allow us to characterize their work habits as measures of effort provision. We document a positive effect of effort on unexpected earnings and cumulative abnormal returns following earnings announcements, and a reduction in credit default swap spreads. This is robust to using exogenous weather patterns as an instrument. Long‐short, calendar‐time effort portfolios earn significant average daily returns. Finally, we revisit important agency issues from the literature.

Information Consumption and Asset Pricing

Published: 10/9/2020,  Volume: 76,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12975  |  Cited by: 98

AZI BEN‐REPHAEL, BRUCE I. CARLIN, ZHI DA, RYAN D. ISRAELSEN

We study whether firm and macroeconomic announcements that convey systematic information generate a return premium for firms that experience information spillovers. We use information consumption to proxy for investor learning during these announcements and construct ex ante measures of expected information consumption (EIC) to calibrate whether learning is priced. On days when there are information spillovers, affected stocks earn a significant return premium (5% annualized) and the capital asset pricing model performs better. The positive effect of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announcements on the risk premia of individual stocks appears to be modulated by EIC. Our findings are most consistent with a risk‐based explanation.

Nonstandard Errors

Published: 4/17/2024,  Volume: 79,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13337  |  Cited by: 106

ALBERT J. MENKVELD, ANNA DREBER, FELIX HOLZMEISTER, JUERGEN HUBER, MAGNUS JOHANNESSON, MICHAEL KIRCHLER, SEBASTIAN NEUSÜß, MICHAEL RAZEN, UTZ WEITZEL, DAVID ABAD‐DÍAZ, MENACHEM (MENI) ABUDY, TOBIAS ADRIAN, YACINE AIT‐SAHALIA, OLIVIER AKMANSOY, JAMIE T. ALCOCK, VITALI ALEXEEV, ARASH ALOOSH, LIVIA AMATO, DIEGO AMAYA, JAMES J. ANGEL, ALEJANDRO T. AVETIKIAN, AMADEUS BACH, EDWIN BAIDOO, GAETAN BAKALLI, LI BAO, ANDREA BARBON, OKSANA BASHCHENKO, PARAMPREET C. BINDRA, GEIR H. BJØNNES, JEFFREY R. BLACK, BERNARD S. BLACK, DIMITAR BOGOEV, SANTIAGO BOHORQUEZ CORREA, OLEG BONDARENKO, CHARLES S. BOS, CIRIL BOSCH‐ROSA, ELIE BOURI, CHRISTIAN BROWNLEES, ANNA CALAMIA, VIET NGA CAO, GUNTHER CAPELLE‐BLANCARD, LAURA M. CAPERA ROMERO, MASSIMILIANO CAPORIN, ALLEN CARRION, TOLGA CASKURLU, BIDISHA CHAKRABARTY, JIAN CHEN, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, WILLIAM CHEUNG, LUDWIG B. CHINCARINI, TARUN CHORDIA, SHEUNG‐CHI CHOW, BENJAMIN CLAPHAM, JEAN‐EDOUARD COLLIARD, CAROLE COMERTON‐FORDE, EDWARD CURRAN, THONG DAO, WALE DARE, RYAN J. DAVIES, RICCARDO DE BLASIS, GIANLUCA F. DE NARD, FANY DECLERCK, OLEG DEEV, HANS DEGRYSE, SOLOMON Y. DEKU, CHRISTOPHE DESAGRE, MATHIJS A. VAN DIJK, CHUKWUMA DIM, THOMAS DIMPFL, YUN JIANG DONG, PHILIP A. DRUMMOND, TOM DUDDA, TEODOR DUEVSKI, ARIADNA DUMITRESCU, TEODOR DYAKOV, ANNE HAUBO DYHRBERG, MICHAŁ DZIELIŃSKI, ASLI EKSI, IZIDIN EL KALAK, SASKIA TER ELLEN, NICOLAS EUGSTER, MARTIN D. D. EVANS, MICHAEL FARRELL, ESTER FELEZ‐VINAS, GERARDO FERRARA, EL MEHDI FERROUHI, ANDREA FLORI, JONATHAN T. FLUHARTY‐JAIDEE, SEAN D. V. FOLEY, KINGSLEY Y. L. FONG, THIERRY FOUCAULT, TATIANA FRANUS, FRANCESCO FRANZONI, BART FRIJNS, MICHAEL FRÖMMEL, SERVANNA M. FU, SASCHA C. FÜLLBRUNN, BAOQING GAN, GE GAO, THOMAS P. GEHRIG, ROLAND GEMAYEL, DIRK GERRITSEN, JAVIER GIL‐BAZO, DUDLEY GILDER, LAWRENCE R. GLOSTEN, THOMAS GOMEZ, ARSENY GORBENKO, JOACHIM GRAMMIG, VINCENT GRÉGOIRE, UFUK GÜÇBILMEZ, BJÖRN HAGSTRÖMER, JULIEN HAMBUCKERS, ERIK HAPNES, JEFFREY H. HARRIS, LAWRENCE HARRIS, SIMON HARTMANN, JEAN‐BAPTISTE HASSE, NIKOLAUS HAUTSCH, XUE‐ZHONG (TONY) HE, DAVIDSON HEATH, SIMON HEDIGER, TERRENCE HENDERSHOTT, ANN MARIE HIBBERT, ERIK HJALMARSSON, SETH A. HOELSCHER, PETER HOFFMANN, CRAIG W. HOLDEN, ALEX R. HORENSTEIN, WENQIAN HUANG, DA HUANG, CHRISTOPHE HURLIN, KONRAD ILCZUK, ALEXEY IVASHCHENKO, SUBRAMANIAN R. IYER, HOSSEIN JAHANSHAHLOO, NAJI JALKH, CHARLES M. JONES, SIMON JURKATIS, PETRI JYLHÄ, ANDREAS T. KAECK, GABRIEL KAISER, ARZÉ KARAM, EGLE KARMAZIENE, BERNHARD KASSNER, MARKKU KAUSTIA, EKATERINA KAZAK, FEARGHAL KEARNEY, VINCENT VAN KERVEL, SAAD A. KHAN, MARTA K. KHOMYN, TONY KLEIN, OLGA KLEIN, ALEXANDER KLOS, MICHAEL KOETTER, ALEKSEY KOLOKOLOV, ROBERT A. KORAJCZYK, ROMAN KOZHAN, JAN P. KRAHNEN, PAUL KUHLE, AMY KWAN, QUENTIN LAJAUNIE, F. Y. ERIC C. LAM, MARIE LAMBERT, HUGUES LANGLOIS, JENS LAUSEN, TOBIAS LAUTER, MARKUS LEIPPOLD, VLADIMIR LEVIN, YIJIE LI, HUI LI, CHEE YOONG LIEW, THOMAS LINDNER, OLIVER LINTON, JIACHENG LIU, ANQI LIU, GUILLERMO LLORENTE, MATTHIJS LOF, ARIEL LOHR, FRANCIS LONGSTAFF, ALEJANDRO LOPEZ‐LIRA, SHAWN MANKAD, NICOLA MANO, ALEXIS MARCHAL, CHARLES MARTINEAU, FRANCESCO MAZZOLA, DEBRAH MELOSO, MICHAEL G. MI, ROXANA MIHET, VIJAY MOHAN, SOPHIE MOINAS, DAVID MOORE, LIANGYI MU, DMITRIY MURAVYEV, DERMOT MURPHY, GABOR NESZVEDA, CHRISTIAN NEUMEIER, ULF NIELSSON, MAHENDRARAJAH NIMALENDRAN, SVEN NOLTE, LARS L. NORDEN, PETER O'NEILL, KHALED OBAID, BERNT A. ØDEGAARD, PER ÖSTBERG, EMILIANO PAGNOTTA, MARCUS PAINTER, STEFAN PALAN, IMON J. PALIT, ANDREAS PARK, ROBERTO PASCUAL, PAOLO PASQUARIELLO, LUBOS PASTOR, VINAY PATEL, ANDREW J. PATTON, NEIL D. PEARSON, LORIANA PELIZZON, MICHELE PELLI, MATTHIAS PELSTER, CHRISTOPHE PÉRIGNON, CAMERON PFIFFER, RICHARD PHILIP, TOMÁŠ PLÍHAL, PUNEET PRAKASH, OLIVER‐ALEXANDER PRESS, TINA PRODROMOU, MARCEL PROKOPCZUK, TALIS PUTNINS, YA QIAN, GAURAV RAIZADA, DAVID RAKOWSKI, ANGELO RANALDO, LUCA REGIS, STEFAN REITZ, THOMAS RENAULT, REX W. RENJIE, ROBERTO RENO, STEVEN J. RIDDIOUGH, KALLE RINNE, PAUL RINTAMÄKI, RYAN RIORDAN, THOMAS RITTMANNSBERGER, IÑAKI RODRÍGUEZ LONGARELA, DOMINIK ROESCH, LAVINIA ROGNONE, BRIAN ROSEMAN, IOANID ROŞU, SAURABH ROY, NICOLAS RUDOLF, STEPHEN R. RUSH, KHALADDIN RZAYEV, ALEKSANDRA A. RZEŹNIK, ANTHONY SANFORD, HARIKUMAR SANKARAN, ASANI SARKAR, LUCIO SARNO, OLIVIER SCAILLET, STEFAN SCHARNOWSKI, KLAUS R. SCHENK‐HOPPÉ, ANDREA SCHERTLER, MICHAEL SCHNEIDER, FLORIAN SCHROEDER, NORMAN SCHÜRHOFF, PHILIPP SCHUSTER, MARCO A. SCHWARZ, MARK S. SEASHOLES, NORMAN J. SEEGER, OR SHACHAR, ANDRIY SHKILKO, JESSICA SHUI, MARIO SIKIC, GIORGIA SIMION, LEE A. SMALES, PAUL SÖDERLIND, ELVIRA SOJLI, KONSTANTIN SOKOLOV, JANTJE SÖNKSEN, LAIMA SPOKEVICIUTE, DENITSA STEFANOVA, MARTI G. SUBRAHMANYAM, BARNABAS SZASZI, OLEKSANDR TALAVERA, YUEHUA TANG, NICK TAYLOR, WING WAH THAM, ERIK THEISSEN, JULIAN THIMME, IAN TONKS, HAI TRAN, LUCA TRAPIN, ANDERS B. TROLLE, M. ANDREEA VADUVA, GIORGIO VALENTE, ROBERT A. VAN NESS, AURELIO VASQUEZ, THANOS VEROUSIS, PATRICK VERWIJMEREN, ANDERS VILHELMSSON, GRIGORY VILKOV, VLADIMIR VLADIMIROV, SEBASTIAN VOGEL, STEFAN VOIGT, WOLF WAGNER, THOMAS WALTHER, PATRICK WEISS, MICHEL VAN DER WEL, INGRID M. WERNER, P. JOAKIM WESTERHOLM, CHRISTIAN WESTHEIDE, HANS C. WIKA, EVERT WIPPLINGER, MICHAEL WOLF, CHRISTIAN C. P. WOLFF, LEONARD WOLK, WING‐KEUNG WONG, JAN WRAMPELMEYER, ZHEN‐XING WU, SHUO XIA, DACHENG XIU, KE XU, CAIHONG XU, PRADEEP K. YADAV, JOSÉ YAGÜE, CHENG YAN, ANTTI YANG, WOONGSUN YOO, WENJIA YU, YIHE YU, SHIHAO YU, BART Z. YUESHEN, DARYA YUFEROVA, MARCIN ZAMOJSKI, ABALFAZL ZAREEI, STEFAN M. ZEISBERGER, LU ZHANG, S. SARAH ZHANG, XIAOYU ZHANG, LU ZHAO, ZHUO ZHONG, Z. IVY ZHOU, CHEN ZHOU, XINGYU S. ZHU, MARIUS ZOICAN, REMCO ZWINKELS

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.