The Journal of Finance

The Geography of Equity Analysis

Published: 03/02/2005   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00744.x

CHRISTOPHER J. MALLOY

I provide evidence that geographically proximate analysts are more accurate than other analysts. Stock returns immediately surrounding forecast revisions suggest that local analysts impact prices more than other analysts. These effects are strongest for firms located in small cities and remote areas. Collectively these results suggest that geographically proximate analysts possess an information advantage over other analysts, and that this advantage translates into better performance. The well‐documented underwriter affiliation bias in stock recommendations is concentrated among distant affiliated analysts; recommendations by local affiliated analysts are unbiased. This finding reveals a geographic component to the agency problems in the industry.

Rewriting History

Published: 07/16/2009   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01484.x

ALEXANDER LJUNGQVIST, CHRISTOPHER MALLOY, FELICIA MARSTON

We document widespread changes to the historical I/B/E/S analyst stock recommendations database. Across seven I/B/E/S downloads, obtained between 2000 and 2007, we find that between 6,580 (1.6%) and 97,582 (21.7%) of matched observations are different from one download to the next. The changes include alterations of recommendations, additions and deletions of records, and removal of analyst names. These changes are nonrandom, clustering by analyst reputation, broker size and status, and recommendation boldness, and affect trading signal classifications and back‐tests of three stylized facts: profitability of trading signals, profitability of consensus recommendation changes, and persistence in individual analyst stock‐picking ability.

Decoding Inside Information

Published: 05/21/2012   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01740.x

LAUREN COHEN, CHRISTOPHER MALLOY, LUKASZ POMORSKI

Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable “routine” insider trading that is not informative about firms’ futures. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on the remaining “opportunistic” traders yields value‐weighted abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. The most informed opportunistic traders are local, nonexecutive insiders from geographically concentrated, poorly governed firms. Opportunistic traders are significantly more likely to have SEC enforcement action taken against them, and reduce trading following waves of SEC insider trading enforcement.

Sell‐Side School Ties

Published: 07/15/2010   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01574.x

LAUREN COHEN, ANDREA FRAZZINI, CHRISTOPHER MALLOY

We study the impact of social networks on agents’ ability to gather superior information about firms. Exploiting novel data on the educational background of sell‐side analysts and senior corporate officers, we find that analysts outperform by up to 6.60% per year on their stock recommendations when they have an educational link to the company. Pre‐Reg FD, this school‐tie return premium is 9.36% per year, while post‐Reg FD it is nearly zero. In contrast, in an environment that did not change selective disclosure regulation (the U.K.), the school‐tie premium is large and significant over the entire sample period.

Lazy Prices

Published: 01/28/2020   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12885

LAUREN COHEN, CHRISTOPHER MALLOY, QUOC NGUYEN

Using the complete history of regular quarterly and annual filings by U.S. corporations, we show that changes to the language and construction of financial reports have strong implications for firms’ future returns and operations. A portfolio that shorts “changers” and buys “nonchangers” earns up to 188 basis points per month in alpha (over 22% per year) in the future. Moreover, changes to 10‐Ks predict future earnings, profitability, future news announcements, and even future firm‐level bankruptcies. Unlike typical underreaction patterns, we find no announcement effect, suggesting that investors are inattentive to these simple changes across the universe of public firms.

Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps

Published: 03/01/2016   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12407

LAUREN COHEN, UMIT G. GURUN, CHRISTOPHER MALLOY

Using customs and port authority data, we show that firms are significantly more likely to trade with countries that have a large resident population near their firm headquarters, and that these connected trades are their most valuable international trades. Using the formation of World War II Japanese internment camps to isolate exogenous shocks to local ethnic populations, we identify a causal link between local networks and firm trade. Firms are also more likely to acquire target firms, and report increased segment sales, in connected countries. Our results point to a surprisingly large role of immigrants as economic conduits for firms.

Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market

Published: 09/04/2007   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01269.x

LAUREN COHEN, KARL B. DIETHER, CHRISTOPHER J. MALLOY

Using proprietary data on stock loan fees and quantities from a large institutional investor, we examine the link between the shorting market and stock prices. Employing a unique identification strategy, we isolate shifts in the supply and demand for shorting. We find that shorting demand is an important predictor of future stock returns: An increase in shorting demand leads to negative abnormal returns of 2.98% in the following month. Second, we show that our results are stronger in environments with less public information flow, suggesting that the shorting market is an important mechanism for private information revelation.

Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Published: 12/17/2002   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00490

Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy, Anna Scherbina

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting dispersion in analysts forecasts as a proxy for differences in opinion about a stock, we show that this evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that prices will reflect the optimistic view whenever investors with the lowest valuations do not trade. By contrast, our evidence is inconsistent with a view that dispersion in analysts' forecasts proxies for risk.

Long‐Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns

Published: 11/25/2009   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01507.x

CHRISTOPHER J. MALLOY, TOBIAS J. MOSKOWITZ, ANNETTE VISSING‐JØRGENSEN

We provide new evidence on the success of long‐run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting microlevel household consumption data, we show that long‐run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross‐sectional variation in average asset returns than aggregate or nonstockholder consumption risk, and implies more plausible risk aversion estimates. We find that risk aversion around 10 can match observed risk premia for the wealthiest stockholders across sets of test assets that include the 25 Fama and French portfolios, the market portfolio, bond portfolios, and the entire cross‐section of stocks.