The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
AFA members can log in to view full-text articles below.
View past issues
Search the Journal of Finance:
Search results: 1.
Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage‐induced or Statistical Illusion?
Published: 06/01/1994 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb05149.x
MERTON H. MILLER, JAYARAM MUTHUSWAMY, ROBERT E. WHALEY
Mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been presumed to be driven by the trading activity of stock index arbitragers. We propose here instead that the observed negative autocorrelation in basis changes is mainly a statistical illusion, arising because many stocks in the index portfolio trade infrequently. Even without formal arbitrage, reported basis changes would appear negatively autocorrelated as lagging stocks eventually trade and get updated. The implications of this study go beyond index arbitrage, however. Our analysis suggests that spurious elements may creep in whenever the price‐change or return series of two securities or portfolios of securities are differenced.