Search results: 31.
Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns
Published: 8/2001, Volume: 56, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00367 | Cited by: 687
Nicholas Barberis, Ming Huang
We study equilibrium firm‐level stock returns in two economies: one in which investors are loss averse over the fluctuations of their stock portfolio, and another in which they are loss averse over the fluctuations of individual stocks that they own. Both approaches can shed light on empirical phenomena, but we find the second approach to be more successful: In that economy, the typical individual stock return has a high mean and excess volatility, and there is a large value premium in the cross section which can, to some extent, be captured by a commonly used multifactor model.
Swap Rates and Credit Quality
Published: 7/1996, Volume: 51, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02712.x | Cited by: 233
DARRELL DUFFIE, MING HUANG
This article presents a model for valuing claims subject to default by both contracting parties, such as swaps and forwards. With counterparties of different default risk, the promised cash flows of a swap are discounted by a switching discount rate that, at any given state and time, is equal to the discount rate of the counterparty for whom the swap is currently out of the money (that is, a liability). The impact of credit‐risk asymmetry and of netting is presented through both theory and numerical examples, which include interest rate and currency swaps.
Market Orders and Market Efficiency
Published: 3/1997, Volume: 52, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03816.x | Cited by: 36
DAVID P. BROWN, ZHI MING ZHANG
This work compares a dealer market and a limit‐order book. Dealers commonly observe order flow and collect information from multiple market orders. They may be better informed than other traders, although they do not earn rents from this information. Dealers earn rents as suppliers of liquidity, and their decisions to enter or exit the market are independent of the degree of adverse selection. Introduction of a limit‐order book lowers the execution‐price risk faced by speculators and leads them to trade more aggressively on their information. Introduction of the book also lowers dealer profits, but increases the informational efficiency of prices.
Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets
Published: 3/1987, Volume: 42, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb02550.x | Cited by: 13
ROGER D. HUANG
The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time‐varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.
The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility
Published: 3/1981, Volume: 36, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb03532.x | Cited by: 20
ROGER D. HUANG
The variance bounds on exchange rate movements implied by the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market is shown to be violated by sample data. The paper also presents evidence showing that the forecast errors implied by the monetary model can be forecasted using historical data. The results are interpreted to suggest either the incompatibility of the monetary approach with sample data, or an inefficient foreign exchange market or both.
DISCUSSION
Published: 7/1985, Volume: 40, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05011.x | Cited by: 0
CHI‐FU HUANG
An Analysis of Intertemporal Pricing for Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts
Published: 3/1989, Volume: 44, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb02411.x | Cited by: 8
ROGER D. HUANG
An asset‐pricing model with an unobservable time‐varying risk premium is used to price forward foreign exchange contracts. Specifically, the term spectrum of forward foreign exchange contracts is examined in order to focus on country‐specific and maturity‐specific information. The testable restrictions imposed by the model are consistent with both cross‐country and cross‐maturity forward contracts except at the short end of the maturity spectrum for cross‐country forward exchange rates. This indicates that the intertemporal model is relatively robust in valuing forward contracts of different maturities and for different exchange rates but that it may fail when there are significant short‐term country‐specific shocks.
The Quality of ECN and Nasdaq Market Maker Quotes
Published: 6/2002, Volume: 57, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00461 | Cited by: 227
Roger D. Huang
This paper compares the quality of quotes submitted by electronic communication networks (ECNs) and by traditional market makers to the Nasdaq quote montage. An analysis of the most active Nasdaq stocks shows that ECNs not only post informative quotes, but also, compared to market makers, ECNs post quotes rapidly and are more often at the inside. Additionally, ECN quoted spreads are smaller than dealer quoted spreads. The evidence suggests that the proliferation of alternative trading venues, such as ECNs, may promote quote quality rather than fragmenting markets. Moreover, the results suggest that a more open book contributes to quote quality.
CEO Compensation and Board Structure Revisited
Published: 5/21/2012, Volume: 67, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01744.x | Cited by: 207
KATHERINE GUTHRIE, JAN SOKOLOWSKY, KAM‐MING WAN
Chhaochharia and Grinstein estimate that CEO pay decreases 17% more in firms that were not compliant with the recent NYSE/Nasdaq board independence requirement than in firms that were compliant. We document that 74% of this magnitude is attributable to two outliers of 865 sample firms. In addition, we find that the compensation committee independence requirement increases CEO total pay, particularly in the presence of effective shareholder monitoring. Our evidence casts doubt on the effectiveness of independent directors in constraining CEO pay as suggested by the managerial power hypothesis.
Rational Inattention and Portfolio Selection
Published: 8/2007, Volume: 62, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01263.x | Cited by: 130
LIXIN HUANG, HONG LIU
Costly information acquisition makes it rational for investors to obtain important economic news with only limited frequency or limited accuracy. We show that this rational inattention to important news may make investors over‐ or underinvest. In addition, the optimal trading strategy is “myopic” with respect to future news frequency and accuracy. We find that the optimal news frequency is nonmonotonic in news accuracy and investment horizon. Furthermore, when both news frequency and news accuracy are endogenized, an investor with a higher risk aversion or a longer investment horizon chooses less frequent but more accurate periodic news updates.
Credit Rating Inflation and Firms' Investments
Published: 7/29/2020, Volume: 75, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12961 | Cited by: 85
ITAY GOLDSTEIN, CHONG HUANG
We analyze credit rating effects on firm investments in a rational bond financing game that features a feedback loop. The credit rating agency (CRA) inflates the rating, providing a biased but informative signal to creditors. Creditors' response to the rating affects the firm's investment decision and thus its credit quality, which is reflected in the rating. The CRA might reduce ex ante economic efficiency, which results solely from its strategic effect: the CRA assigns more firms high ratings and allows them to gamble for resurrection. We derive empirical predictions on the determinants of rating standards and inflation and discuss policy implications.
Transformed Securities and Alternative Factor Structures
Published: 3/1992, Volume: 47, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb03992.x | Cited by: 2
ROGER D. HUANG, HOJE JO
Grinblatt and Titman (1985) reformulate a result of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983) to show that the approximate factor structure of Chamberlain and Rothschild is asymptotically equivalent to the strict factor structure of Ross (1976) as long as investors can always repackage securities into an equal number of arbitrary portfolios. This paper uses a Procrustes rotation methodology that is compatible with the repackaging interpretation of Grinblatt and Titman to show that the empirical structure of stock prices is consistent with the convergency hypothesis.
Specification Analysis of Option Pricing Models Based on Time‐Changed Lévy Processes
Published: 6/2004, Volume: 59, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00667.x | Cited by: 264
Jing‐zhi Huang, Liuren Wu
We analyze the specifications of option pricing models based on time‐changed Lévy processes. We classify option pricing models based on the structure of the jump component in the underlying return process, the source of stochastic volatility, and the specification of the volatility process itself. Our estimation of a variety of model specifications indicates that to better capture the behavior of the S&P 500 index options, we need to incorporate a high frequency jump component in the return process and generate stochastic volatilities from two different sources, the jump component and the diffusion component.
Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?
Published: 3/9/2006, Volume: 61, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00853.x | Cited by: 733
MING DONG, DAVID HIRSHLEIFER, SCOTT RICHARDSON, SIEW HONG TEOH
This paper uses pre‐offer market valuations to evaluate the misvaluation and
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theories of takeovers. Bidder and target valuations (price‐to‐book, or price‐to‐residual‐income‐model‐value) are related to means of payment, mode of acquisition, premia, target hostility, offer success, and bidder and target announcement‐period returns. The evidence is broadly consistent with both hypotheses. The evidence for the
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hypothesis is stronger in the pre‐1990 period than in the 1990–2000 period, whereas the evidence for the misvaluation hypothesis is stronger in the 1990–2000 period than in the pre‐1990 period.
Star Ratings and the Incentives of Mutual Funds
Published: 2/20/2020, Volume: 75, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12888 | Cited by: 52
CHONG HUANG, FEI LI, XI WENG
We propose a theory of reputation to explain how investors rationally respond to mutual fund star ratings. A fund's performance is determined by its information advantage, which can be acquired but decays stochastically. Investors form beliefs about whether the fund is informed based on its past performance. We refer to such beliefs as fund reputation, which determines fund flows. As performance changes continuously, equilibrium fund reputation may take discrete values only and thus can be labeled with stars. Star upgrades thus imply reputation jumps, leading to discrete increases in flows and expected performance, although stars do not provide new information.
Consumption in Asset Returns
Published: 5/15/2026, Volume: 81, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70044 | Cited by: 3
SVETLANA BRYZGALOVA, JIANTAO HUANG, CHRISTIAN JULLIARD
Using information in returns, we identify the stochastic process of consumption. We find that aggregate consumption reacts over multiple quarters to innovations spanned by financial markets. This persistent component accounts for over a quarter of consumption variation. These shocks command a large and significant risk premium, driving a large share of stocks' and a small yet significant fraction of bonds' time‐series variation. Nevertheless, we find no support for stochastic volatility of consumption driving time‐varying risk premia. Finally, an otherwise standard recursive utility model based on our estimated process explains equity premium and risk‐free rate puzzles with low‐risk aversion.
Local Crowding‐Out in China
Published: 8/10/2020, Volume: 75, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12966 | Cited by: 540
YI HUANG, MARCO PAGANO, UGO PANIZZA
In China, between 2006 and 2013, local public debt crowded out the investment of private firms by tightening their funding constraints while leaving state‐owned firms' investment unaffected. We establish this result using a purpose‐built data set for Chinese local public debt. Private firms invest less in cities with more public debt, with the reduction in investment larger for firms located farther from banks in other cities or more dependent on external funding. Moreover, in cities where public debt is high, private firms' investment is more sensitive to internal cash flow.
Stock Market Returns and Real Activity: A Note
Published: 3/1984, Volume: 39, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03875.x | Cited by: 22
ROGER D. HUANG, WILLIAM A. KRACAW
Bayesian Solutions for the Factor Zoo: We Just Ran Two Quadrillion Models
Published: 12/31/2022, Volume: 78, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13197 | Cited by: 121
SVETLANA BRYZGALOVA, JIANTAO HUANG, CHRISTIAN JULLIARD
We propose a novel framework for analyzing linear asset pricing models: simple, robust, and applicable to high‐dimensional problems. For a (potentially misspecified) stand‐alone model, it provides reliable price of risk estimates for both tradable and nontradable factors, and detects those weakly identified. For competing factors and (possibly nonnested) models, the method automatically selects the best specification—if a dominant one exists—or provides a Bayesian model averaging–stochastic discount factor (BMA‐SDF), if there is no clear winner. We analyze 2.25 quadrillion models generated by a large set of factors and find that the BMA‐SDF outperforms existing models in‐ and out‐of‐sample.
The Global Credit Spread Puzzle
Published: 12/20/2024, Volume: 80, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13409 | Cited by: 14
JING‐ZHI HUANG, YOSHIO NOZAWA, ZHAN SHI
We examine the ability of structural models to predict credit spreads using global default data and security‐level credit spread data in eight developed economies. We find that two representative, pure default‐risk models tend to underpredict the average credit spreads on investment‐grade (IG) bonds, especially their spreads over government bonds, thereby providing evidence for a “global credit spread puzzle.” However, a model incorporating endogenous liquidity in the secondary debt market helps mitigate the puzzle. Furthermore, the model captures certain determinants of corporate bond market frictions across the eight economies and substantially improves the cross‐sectional fit of individual IG credit spreads.
Participation Costs and the Sensitivity of Fund Flows to Past Performance
Published: 5/8/2007, Volume: 62, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01236.x | Cited by: 438
JENNIFER HUANG, KELSEY D. WEI, HONG YAN
We present a simple rational model to highlight the effect of investors' participation costs on the response of mutual fund flows to past fund performance. By incorporating participation costs into a model in which investors learn about managers' ability from past returns, we show that mutual funds with lower participation costs have a higher flow sensitivity to medium performance and a lower flow sensitivity to high performance than their higher‐cost peers. Using various fund characteristics as proxies for the reduction in participation costs, we provide empirical evidence supporting the model's implications for the asymmetric flow‐performance relationship.
Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the U.S. Banking Sector
Published: 10/13/2024, Volume: 79, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13390 | Cited by: 26
QI CHEN, ITAY GOLDSTEIN, ZEQIONG HUANG, RAHUL VASHISHTHA
Liquidity transformation, a key role of banks, is thought to increase fragility, as uninsured depositors face an incentive to withdraw money before others (a so‐called panic run). Despite much theoretical work, however, there is little empirical evidence establishing this mechanism. In this paper, we provide the first large‐scale evidence of this mechanism. Banks that engage in more liquidity transformation exhibit higher fragility, as captured by stronger sensitivities of uninsured deposit flows to bank performance and greater levels of uninsured deposit outflows when performance is poor. We also explore the effects of deposit insurance and systemic risk.
The (Missing) Relation between Acquisition Announcement Returns and Value Creation
Published: 4/7/2026, Volume: 81, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70038 | Cited by: 9
ITZHAK BEN‐DAVID, UTPAL BHATTACHARYA, RUIDI HUANG, STACEY JACOBSEN
Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) computed around acquisition announcements are widely considered to be market‐based assessments of expected value creation. We show, however, that announcement returns do not correlate with commonly used and new measures of ex post outcomes. A simple characteristics‐based model using standard information known at the announcement date can predict these outcomes reasonably well, yet CAR even fails to capture the predictions from this model. Evidence suggests that information about the stand‐alone acquirer dominates CAR, making it virtually impossible to extract deal‐related information. We conclude that CAR is an unreliable measure of expected value creation.
Short Selling and Earnings Management: A Controlled Experiment
Published: 5/11/2016, Volume: 71, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12369 | Cited by: 448
VIVIAN W. FANG, ALLEN H. HUANG, JONATHAN M. KARPOFF
During 2005 to 2007, the SEC ordered a pilot program in which one‐third of the Russell 3000 index were arbitrarily chosen as pilot stocks and exempted from short‐sale price tests. Pilot firms’ discretionary accruals and likelihood of marginally beating earnings targets decrease during this period, and revert to pre‐experiment levels when the program ends. After the program starts, pilot firms are more likely to be caught for fraud initiated before the program, and their stock returns better incorporate earnings information. These results indicate that short selling, or its prospect, curbs earnings management, helps detect fraud, and improves price efficiency.
Attention‐Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users
Published: 10/20/2022, Volume: 77, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13183 | Cited by: 504
BRAD M. BARBER, XING HUANG, TERRANCE ODEAN, CHRISTOPHER SCHWARZ
We study the influence of financial innovation by fintech brokerages on individual investors’ trading and stock prices. Using data from Robinhood, we find that Robinhood investors engage in more attention‐induced trading than other retail investors. For example, Robinhood outages disproportionately reduce trading in high‐attention stocks. While this evidence is consistent with Robinhood attracting relatively inexperienced investors, we show that it is also driven in part by the app's unique features. Consistent with models of attention‐induced trading, intense buying by Robinhood users forecasts negative returns. Average 20‐day abnormal returns are −4.7% for the top stocks purchased each day.
Quantifying Reduced‐Form Evidence on Collateral Constraints
Published: 6/15/2022, Volume: 77, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13158 | Cited by: 48
SYLVAIN CATHERINE, THOMAS CHANEY, ZONGBO HUANG, DAVID SRAER, DAVID THESMAR
This paper quantifies the aggregate effects of financing constraints. We start from a standard dynamic investment model with collateral constraints. In contrast to the existing quantitative literature, our estimation does not target the mean leverage ratio to identify the scope of financing frictions. Instead, we use a reduced‐form coefficient from the recent corporate finance literature that connects exogenous debt capacity shocks to corporate investment. Relative to a frictionless benchmark, collateral constraints induce losses of 7.1% for output and 1.4% for total factor productivity (TFP) (misallocation). We show these estimated losses tend to be more robust to misspecification than estimates obtained by targeting leverage.
The “Actual Retail Price” of Equity Trades
Published: 7/25/2025, Volume: 80, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13467 | Cited by: 7
CHRISTOPHER SCHWARZ, BRAD BARBER, XING HUANG, PHILIPPE JORION, TERRANCE ODEAN
We compare execution quality of six brokerage accounts across five brokers by generating a sample of 85,000 simultaneous market orders. Commission levels and payment for order flow (PFOF) differ across our accounts. We find that execution prices vary significantly across brokers: the mean account‐level round‐trip cost ranges from 0.07% to 0.46%, excluding any commissions. The dispersion is due to off‐exchange wholesalers systematically giving different execution prices for the same trades to different brokers. Across brokers, variation in PFOF does not explain the large variation in price execution. We provide several suggestions for more informative disclosures on execution quality.
A (Sub)penny for Your Thoughts: Tracking Retail Investor Activity in TAQ
Published: 5/3/2024, Volume: 79, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13334 | Cited by: 114
BRAD M. BARBER, XING HUANG, PHILIPPE JORION, TERRANCE ODEAN, CHRISTOPHER SCHWARZ
We placed 85,000 retail trades in six retail brokerage accounts from December 2021 to June 2022 to validate the Boehmer et al. algorithm, which uses subpenny trade prices to identify and sign retail trades. The algorithm identifies 35% of our trades as retail, incorrectly signs 28% of identified trades, and yields uninformative order imbalance measures for 30% of stocks. We modify the algorithm by signing trades using the quoted spread midpoints. The quote midpoint method does not affect identification rates but reduces the signing error rates to 5% and provides informative order imbalance measures for all stocks.
FinTech Credit and Entrepreneurial Growth
Published: 8/30/2024, Volume: 79, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13384 | Cited by: 72
HARALD HAU, YI HUANG, CHEN LIN, HONGZHE SHAN, ZIXIA SHENG, LAI WEI
Based on automated credit lines to vendors trading on Alibaba's online retail platform and a discontinuity in the credit decision algorithm, we document that a vendor's access to FinTech credit boosts its sales growth, transaction growth, and the level of customer satisfaction gauged by product, service, and consignment ratings. These effects are more pronounced for vendors characterized by greater information asymmetry about their credit risk and less collateral, which reveals the information advantage of FinTech credit over traditional credit technology.
The Impact of Minority Representation at Mortgage Lenders
Published: 2/11/2025, Volume: 80, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13428 | Cited by: 26
W. SCOTT FRAME, RUIDI HUANG, ERICA XUEWEI JIANG, YEONJOON LEE, WILL SHUO LIU, ERIK J. MAYER, ADI SUNDERAM
We study links between the labor market for loan officers and access to mortgage credit. Using novel data matching mortgage applications to loan officers, we find that minorities are underrepresented among loan officers. Minority borrowers are less likely to complete mortgage applications, have completed applications approved, and to ultimately take up a loan. These disparities are reduced when minority borrowers work with minority loan officers. These pairings also lead to lower default rates, suggesting minority loan officers have an informational advantage with minority borrowers. Our results suggest minority underrepresentation among loan officers reduces minority borrowers’ access to credit.
Nonstandard Errors
Published: 4/17/2024, Volume: 79, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13337 | Cited by: 112
ALBERT J. MENKVELD, ANNA DREBER, FELIX HOLZMEISTER, JUERGEN HUBER, MAGNUS JOHANNESSON, MICHAEL KIRCHLER, SEBASTIAN NEUSÜß, MICHAEL RAZEN, UTZ WEITZEL, DAVID ABAD‐DÍAZ, MENACHEM (MENI) ABUDY, TOBIAS ADRIAN, YACINE AIT‐SAHALIA, OLIVIER AKMANSOY, JAMIE T. ALCOCK, VITALI ALEXEEV, ARASH ALOOSH, LIVIA AMATO, DIEGO AMAYA, JAMES J. ANGEL, ALEJANDRO T. AVETIKIAN, AMADEUS BACH, EDWIN BAIDOO, GAETAN BAKALLI, LI BAO, ANDREA BARBON, OKSANA BASHCHENKO, PARAMPREET C. BINDRA, GEIR H. BJØNNES, JEFFREY R. BLACK, BERNARD S. BLACK, DIMITAR BOGOEV, SANTIAGO BOHORQUEZ CORREA, OLEG BONDARENKO, CHARLES S. BOS, CIRIL BOSCH‐ROSA, ELIE BOURI, CHRISTIAN BROWNLEES, ANNA CALAMIA, VIET NGA CAO, GUNTHER CAPELLE‐BLANCARD, LAURA M. CAPERA ROMERO, MASSIMILIANO CAPORIN, ALLEN CARRION, TOLGA CASKURLU, BIDISHA CHAKRABARTY, JIAN CHEN, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, WILLIAM CHEUNG, LUDWIG B. CHINCARINI, TARUN CHORDIA, SHEUNG‐CHI CHOW, BENJAMIN CLAPHAM, JEAN‐EDOUARD COLLIARD, CAROLE COMERTON‐FORDE, EDWARD CURRAN, THONG DAO, WALE DARE, RYAN J. DAVIES, RICCARDO DE BLASIS, GIANLUCA F. DE NARD, FANY DECLERCK, OLEG DEEV, HANS DEGRYSE, SOLOMON Y. DEKU, CHRISTOPHE DESAGRE, MATHIJS A. VAN DIJK, CHUKWUMA DIM, THOMAS DIMPFL, YUN JIANG DONG, PHILIP A. DRUMMOND, TOM DUDDA, TEODOR DUEVSKI, ARIADNA DUMITRESCU, TEODOR DYAKOV, ANNE HAUBO DYHRBERG, MICHAŁ DZIELIŃSKI, ASLI EKSI, IZIDIN EL KALAK, SASKIA TER ELLEN, NICOLAS EUGSTER, MARTIN D. D. EVANS, MICHAEL FARRELL, ESTER FELEZ‐VINAS, GERARDO FERRARA, EL MEHDI FERROUHI, ANDREA FLORI, JONATHAN T. FLUHARTY‐JAIDEE, SEAN D. V. FOLEY, KINGSLEY Y. L. FONG, THIERRY FOUCAULT, TATIANA FRANUS, FRANCESCO FRANZONI, BART FRIJNS, MICHAEL FRÖMMEL, SERVANNA M. FU, SASCHA C. FÜLLBRUNN, BAOQING GAN, GE GAO, THOMAS P. GEHRIG, ROLAND GEMAYEL, DIRK GERRITSEN, JAVIER GIL‐BAZO, DUDLEY GILDER, LAWRENCE R. GLOSTEN, THOMAS GOMEZ, ARSENY GORBENKO, JOACHIM GRAMMIG, VINCENT GRÉGOIRE, UFUK GÜÇBILMEZ, BJÖRN HAGSTRÖMER, JULIEN HAMBUCKERS, ERIK HAPNES, JEFFREY H. HARRIS, LAWRENCE HARRIS, SIMON HARTMANN, JEAN‐BAPTISTE HASSE, NIKOLAUS HAUTSCH, XUE‐ZHONG (TONY) HE, DAVIDSON HEATH, SIMON HEDIGER, TERRENCE HENDERSHOTT, ANN MARIE HIBBERT, ERIK HJALMARSSON, SETH A. HOELSCHER, PETER HOFFMANN, CRAIG W. HOLDEN, ALEX R. HORENSTEIN, WENQIAN HUANG, DA HUANG, CHRISTOPHE HURLIN, KONRAD ILCZUK, ALEXEY IVASHCHENKO, SUBRAMANIAN R. IYER, HOSSEIN JAHANSHAHLOO, NAJI JALKH, CHARLES M. JONES, SIMON JURKATIS, PETRI JYLHÄ, ANDREAS T. KAECK, GABRIEL KAISER, ARZÉ KARAM, EGLE KARMAZIENE, BERNHARD KASSNER, MARKKU KAUSTIA, EKATERINA KAZAK, FEARGHAL KEARNEY, VINCENT VAN KERVEL, SAAD A. KHAN, MARTA K. KHOMYN, TONY KLEIN, OLGA KLEIN, ALEXANDER KLOS, MICHAEL KOETTER, ALEKSEY KOLOKOLOV, ROBERT A. KORAJCZYK, ROMAN KOZHAN, JAN P. KRAHNEN, PAUL KUHLE, AMY KWAN, QUENTIN LAJAUNIE, F. Y. ERIC C. LAM, MARIE LAMBERT, HUGUES LANGLOIS, JENS LAUSEN, TOBIAS LAUTER, MARKUS LEIPPOLD, VLADIMIR LEVIN, YIJIE LI, HUI LI, CHEE YOONG LIEW, THOMAS LINDNER, OLIVER LINTON, JIACHENG LIU, ANQI LIU, GUILLERMO LLORENTE, MATTHIJS LOF, ARIEL LOHR, FRANCIS LONGSTAFF, ALEJANDRO LOPEZ‐LIRA, SHAWN MANKAD, NICOLA MANO, ALEXIS MARCHAL, CHARLES MARTINEAU, FRANCESCO MAZZOLA, DEBRAH MELOSO, MICHAEL G. MI, ROXANA MIHET, VIJAY MOHAN, SOPHIE MOINAS, DAVID MOORE, LIANGYI MU, DMITRIY MURAVYEV, DERMOT MURPHY, GABOR NESZVEDA, CHRISTIAN NEUMEIER, ULF NIELSSON, MAHENDRARAJAH NIMALENDRAN, SVEN NOLTE, LARS L. NORDEN, PETER O'NEILL, KHALED OBAID, BERNT A. ØDEGAARD, PER ÖSTBERG, EMILIANO PAGNOTTA, MARCUS PAINTER, STEFAN PALAN, IMON J. PALIT, ANDREAS PARK, ROBERTO PASCUAL, PAOLO PASQUARIELLO, LUBOS PASTOR, VINAY PATEL, ANDREW J. PATTON, NEIL D. PEARSON, LORIANA PELIZZON, MICHELE PELLI, MATTHIAS PELSTER, CHRISTOPHE PÉRIGNON, CAMERON PFIFFER, RICHARD PHILIP, TOMÁŠ PLÍHAL, PUNEET PRAKASH, OLIVER‐ALEXANDER PRESS, TINA PRODROMOU, MARCEL PROKOPCZUK, TALIS PUTNINS, YA QIAN, GAURAV RAIZADA, DAVID RAKOWSKI, ANGELO RANALDO, LUCA REGIS, STEFAN REITZ, THOMAS RENAULT, REX W. RENJIE, ROBERTO RENO, STEVEN J. RIDDIOUGH, KALLE RINNE, PAUL RINTAMÄKI, RYAN RIORDAN, THOMAS RITTMANNSBERGER, IÑAKI RODRÍGUEZ LONGARELA, DOMINIK ROESCH, LAVINIA ROGNONE, BRIAN ROSEMAN, IOANID ROŞU, SAURABH ROY, NICOLAS RUDOLF, STEPHEN R. RUSH, KHALADDIN RZAYEV, ALEKSANDRA A. RZEŹNIK, ANTHONY SANFORD, HARIKUMAR SANKARAN, ASANI SARKAR, LUCIO SARNO, OLIVIER SCAILLET, STEFAN SCHARNOWSKI, KLAUS R. SCHENK‐HOPPÉ, ANDREA SCHERTLER, MICHAEL SCHNEIDER, FLORIAN SCHROEDER, NORMAN SCHÜRHOFF, PHILIPP SCHUSTER, MARCO A. SCHWARZ, MARK S. SEASHOLES, NORMAN J. SEEGER, OR SHACHAR, ANDRIY SHKILKO, JESSICA SHUI, MARIO SIKIC, GIORGIA SIMION, LEE A. SMALES, PAUL SÖDERLIND, ELVIRA SOJLI, KONSTANTIN SOKOLOV, JANTJE SÖNKSEN, LAIMA SPOKEVICIUTE, DENITSA STEFANOVA, MARTI G. SUBRAHMANYAM, BARNABAS SZASZI, OLEKSANDR TALAVERA, YUEHUA TANG, NICK TAYLOR, WING WAH THAM, ERIK THEISSEN, JULIAN THIMME, IAN TONKS, HAI TRAN, LUCA TRAPIN, ANDERS B. TROLLE, M. ANDREEA VADUVA, GIORGIO VALENTE, ROBERT A. VAN NESS, AURELIO VASQUEZ, THANOS VEROUSIS, PATRICK VERWIJMEREN, ANDERS VILHELMSSON, GRIGORY VILKOV, VLADIMIR VLADIMIROV, SEBASTIAN VOGEL, STEFAN VOIGT, WOLF WAGNER, THOMAS WALTHER, PATRICK WEISS, MICHEL VAN DER WEL, INGRID M. WERNER, P. JOAKIM WESTERHOLM, CHRISTIAN WESTHEIDE, HANS C. WIKA, EVERT WIPPLINGER, MICHAEL WOLF, CHRISTIAN C. P. WOLFF, LEONARD WOLK, WING‐KEUNG WONG, JAN WRAMPELMEYER, ZHEN‐XING WU, SHUO XIA, DACHENG XIU, KE XU, CAIHONG XU, PRADEEP K. YADAV, JOSÉ YAGÜE, CHENG YAN, ANTTI YANG, WOONGSUN YOO, WENJIA YU, YIHE YU, SHIHAO YU, BART Z. YUESHEN, DARYA YUFEROVA, MARCIN ZAMOJSKI, ABALFAZL ZAREEI, STEFAN M. ZEISBERGER, LU ZHANG, S. SARAH ZHANG, XIAOYU ZHANG, LU ZHAO, ZHUO ZHONG, Z. IVY ZHOU, CHEN ZHOU, XINGYU S. ZHU, MARIUS ZOICAN, REMCO ZWINKELS
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.