The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
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Search results: 3.
Consumption Volatility Risk
Published: 05/13/2013 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12058
OLIVER BOGUTH, LARS‐ALEXANDER KUEHN
We show that time variation in macroeconomic uncertainty affects asset prices. Consumption volatility is a negatively priced source of risk for a wide variety of test portfolios. At the firm level, exposure to consumption volatility risk predicts future returns, generating a spread across quintile portfolios in excess of 7% annually. This premium is explained by cross‐sectional differences in the sensitivity of dividend volatility to consumption volatility. Stocks with volatile cash flows in uncertain aggregate times require higher expected returns.
Idiosyncratic Cash Flows and Systematic Risk
Published: 05/01/2015 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12280
ILONA BABENKO, OLIVER BOGUTH, YURI TSERLUKEVICH
We show that unpriced cash flow shocks contain information about future priced risk. A positive idiosyncratic shock decreases the sensitivity of firm value to priced risk factors and simultaneously increases firm size and idiosyncratic risk. A simple model can therefore explain book‐to‐market and size anomalies, as well as the negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. Empirically, we find that anomalies are more pronounced for firms with high idiosyncratic cash flow volatility. More generally, our results imply that any economic variable correlated with the history of idiosyncratic shocks can help to explain expected stock returns.
Dissecting Conglomerate Valuations
Published: 02/19/2022 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13117
OLIVER BOGUTH, RAN DUCHIN, MIKHAIL SIMUTIN
We develop a new method to estimate Tobin's Qs of conglomerate divisions without relying on standalone firms. Divisional Qs differ considerably from those of standalone firms across industries, over time, and in their sensitivity to economic shocks. The differences are explained by intraconglomerate covariance structures and access to internal capital markets that mitigate external financing frictions. Consequently, the Qs capture variation in the allocation of assets in the economy: within firms through internal capital markets and across focused and diversified firms through diversifying acquisitions. Overall, our method provides opportunities to study the economic mechanisms that explain corporate diversification.