The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
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Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century
Published: 6/1999, Volume: 54, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00133 | Cited by: 328
Philippe Jorion, William N. Goetzmann
AbstractLong‐term estimates of expected return on equities are typically derived from U.S. data only. There are reasons to suspect that these estimates are subject to survivorship, as the United States is arguably the most successful capitalist system in the world. We collect a database of capital appreciation indexes for 39 markets going back to the 1920s. For 1921 to 1996, U.S. equities had the highest real return of all countries, at 4.3 percent, versus a median of 0.8 percent for other countries. The high equity premium obtained for U.S. equities appears to be the exception rather than the rule.
Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields
Published: 6/1993, Volume: 48, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04732.x | Cited by: 248
WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN, PHILIPPE JORION
This paper reexamines the ability of dividend yields to predict long‐horizon stock returns. We use the bootstrap methodology, as well as simulations, to examine the distribution of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no forecasting ability. These experiments are constructed so as to maintain the dynamics of regressions with lagged dependent variables over long horizons. We find that the empirically observed statistics are well within the 95% bounds of their simulated distributions. Overall there is no strong statistical evidence indicating that dividend yields can be used to forecast stock returns.
Performance Persistence
Published: 6/1995, Volume: 50, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04800.x | Cited by: 817
STEPHEN J. BROWN, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN
We explore performance persistence in mutual funds using absolute and relative benchmarks. Our sample, largely free of survivorship bias, indicates that relative risk‐adjusted performance of mutual funds persists; however, persistence is mostly due to funds that lag the S&P 500. A probit analysis indicates that poor performance increases the probability of disappearance. A year‐by‐year decomposition of the persistence effect demonstrates that the relative performance pattern depends upon the time period observed, and it is correlated across managers. Consequently, it is due to a common strategy that is not captured by standard stylistic categories or risk adjustment procedures.
Efficiency and the Bear: Short Sales and Markets Around the World
Published: 5/8/2007, Volume: 62, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01230.x | Cited by: 649
ARTURO BRIS, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN, NING ZHU
We analyze cross‐sectional and time‐series information from 46 equity markets around the world to consider whether short sales restrictions affect the efficiency of the market and the distributional characteristics of returns to individual stocks and market indices. We find some evidence that prices incorporate negative information faster in countries where short sales are allowed and practiced. A common conjecture by regulators is that short sales restrictions can reduce the relative severity of a market panic. We find strong evidence that in markets where short selling is either prohibited or not practiced, market returns display significantly less negative skewness.
The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered
Published: 8/1998, Volume: 53, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00054 | Cited by: 109
Stephen J. Brown, William N. Goetzmann, Alok Kumar
Alfred Cowles' test of the Dow Theory apparently provides strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. Cowles (1934) analyzes editorials published by the chief exponent of the Dow Theory, William Peter Hamilton. We review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion. Hamilton's timing strategies actually yield high Sharpe ratios and positive alphas for the period 1902 to 1929. Neural net modeling to replicate Hamilton's market calls provides interesting insight into the Dow Theory and allows us to examine the properties of the theory itself out of sample.
Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry
Published: 10/2001, Volume: 56, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00392 | Cited by: 345
Stephen J. Brown, William N. Goetzmann, James Park
Investors in hedge funds and commodity trading advisors (CTAs) are concerned with risk as well as return. We investigate the volatility of hedge funds and CTAs in light of managerial career concerns. We find an association between past performance and risk levels consistent with previous findings for mutual fund managers. Variance shifts depend upon relative rather than absolute fund performance. The importance of relative rankings points to the importance of reputation costs in the investment industry. Our analysis of factors contributing to fund disappearance shows that survival depends on absolute and relative performance, excess volatility, and on fund age.
Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration
Published: 11/11/2008, Volume: 63, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01413.x | Cited by: 187
STEPHEN BROWN, WILLIAM GOETZMANN, BING LIANG, CHRISTOPHER SCHWARZ
Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow‐performance relationships. Investors either lack this information or regard it as immaterial. These findings suggest that regulators should account for the endogenous production of information and the marginal benefit of disclosure to different investment clienteles.
Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows
Published: 7/20/2018, Volume: 73, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12688 | Cited by: 123
ANDREW ANG, BINGXU CHEN, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN, LUDOVIC PHALIPPOU
We introduce a methodology to estimate the historical time series of returns to investment in private equity funds. The approach requires only an unbalanced panel of cash contributions and distributions accruing to limited partners and is robust to sparse data. We decompose private equity returns from 1994 to 2015 into a component due to traded factors and a time‐varying private equity premium not spanned by publicly traded factors. We find cyclicality in private equity returns that differs according to fund type and is consistent with the conjecture that capital market segmentation contributes to private equity returns.
Survival
Published: 7/1995, Volume: 50, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04039.x | Cited by: 370
STEPHEN J. BROWN, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN, STEPHEN A. ROSS
Empirical analysis of rates of return in finance implicitly condition on the security surviving into the sample. We investigate the implications of such conditioning on the time series of rates of return. In general this conditioning induces a spurious relationship between observed return and total risk for those securities that survive to be included in the sample. This result has immediate implications for the equity premium puzzle. We show how these results apply to other outstanding problems of empirical finance. Long‐term autocorrelation studies focus on the statistical relation between successive holding period returns, where the holding period is of possibly extensive duration. If the equity market survives, then we find that average return in the beginning is higher than average return near the end of the time period. For this reason, statistical measures of long‐term dependence are typically biased towards the rejection of a random walk. The result also has implications for event studies. There is a strong association between the magnitude of an earnings announcement and the postannouncement performance of the equity. This might be explained in part as an artefact of the stock price performance of firms in financial distress that survive an earnings announcement. The final example considers stock split studies. In this analysis we implicitly exclude securities whose price on announcement is less than the prior average stock price. We apply our results to this case, and find that the condition that the security forms part of our positive stock split sample suffices to explain the upward trend in event‐related cumulated excess return in the preannouncement period.
Tiebreaker: Certification and Multiple Credit Ratings
Published: 1/17/2012, Volume: 67, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01709.x | Cited by: 284
DION BONGAERTS, K. J. MARTIJN CREMERS, WILLIAM N. GOETZMANN
This paper explores the economic role credit rating agencies play in the corporate bond market. We consider three existing theories about multiple ratings: information production, rating shopping, and regulatory certification. Using differences in rating composition, default prediction, and credit spread changes, our evidence only supports regulatory certification. Marginal, additional credit ratings are more likely to occur because of, and seem to matter primarily for, regulatory purposes. They do not seem to provide significant additional information related to credit quality.
High‐Water Marks and Hedge Fund Management Contracts
Published: 7/15/2003, Volume: 58, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00581 | Cited by: 394
William N. Goetzmann, Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Stephen A. Ross
Incentive fees for money managers are frequently accompanied by high‐water mark provisions that condition the payment of the performance fee upon exceeding the previously achieved maximum share value. In this paper, we show that hedge fund performance fees are valuable to money managers, and conversely, represent a claim on a significant proportion of investor wealth. The high‐water mark provisions in these contracts limit the value of the performance fees. We provide a closed‐form solution to the cost of the high‐water mark contract under certain conditions. Our results provide a framework for valuation of a hedge fund management company.
INTEREST RATES, PORTFOLIO BEHAVIOR, AND MARKETABLE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
Published: 3/1972, Volume: 27, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb00616.x | Cited by: 4
William T. Terrell, William J. Frazer
Interest Rates, Uncertainty and the Livingston Data
Published: 6/1981, Volume: 36, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb00651.x | Cited by: 30
WILLIAM A. BOMBERGER, WILLIAM J. FRAZER
The observed relationship between the standard deviation of forecasts and past forecast errors as found in the Livingston survey suggests the interpretation of the standard deviation as a measure of inflation uncertainty. The mean and the standard deviation for the inflation rate forecast found in the Livingston survey, furthermore, are used as regressors in a reduced‐form interest rate equation. The results indicate a large negative effect of such uncertainty on interest rates. The inclusion of the uncertainty measure and commonly omitted lagged values of all variables in our analysis of data leads to more theoretically plausible estimated effects of money growth and expected inflation on interest rates than do standard estimates.
THE STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF VARIABLE ANNUITIES*
Published: 5/1962, Volume: 17, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04268.x | Cited by: 0
William Freund
THE VALUE OF AN OPTION TO EXCHANGE ONE ASSET FOR ANOTHER
Published: 3/1978, Volume: 33, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb03397.x | Cited by: 1154
William Margrabe
COUNTERSPECULATION, AUCTIONS, AND COMPETITIVE SEALED TENDERS
Published: 3/1961, Volume: 16, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb02789.x | Cited by: 4987
William Vickrey
COMMERCIAL BANK REGULATION, STRUCTURE, AND PERFORMANCE*
Published: 6/1975, Volume: 30, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb01872.x | Cited by: 0
William Jackson
COMMERCIAL BANK RESERVE MANAGEMENT IN A STOCHASTIC MODEL: IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY
Published: 12/1968, Volume: 23, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00316.x | Cited by: 177
William Poole
THE THEORETICAL VALUE OF A STOCK RIGHT: A COMMENT
Published: 9/1956, Volume: 11, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1956.tb00112.x | Cited by: 0
William Beranek
DISCUSSION
Published: 5/1980, Volume: 35, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb02168.x | Cited by: 0
William Marshall
Burnsian Monetary Policy: Eight Years of Progress?
Published: 5/1979, Volume: 34, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb02111.x | Cited by: 6
WILLIAM POOLE
Safety Transformation and the Structure of the Financial System
Published: 8/10/2020, Volume: 75, Issue: 6 | DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12967 | Cited by: 47
WILLIAM DIAMOND
This paper studies how a financial system that is organized to efficiently create safe assets responds to macroeconomic shocks. Financial intermediaries face a cost of bearing risk, so they choose the least risky portfolio that backs their issuance of riskless deposits: a diversified pool of nonfinancial firms' debt. Nonfinancial firms choose their capital structure to exploit the resulting segmentation between debt and equity markets. Increased safe asset demand yields larger and riskier intermediaries and more levered firms. Quantitative easing reduces the size and riskiness of intermediaries and can decrease firm leverage, despite reducing borrowing costs at the zero lower bound.
THE RELATIONSHIP OF MONETARY DECELERATIONS TO BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS: ANOTHER LOOK AT THE EVIDENCE
Published: 6/1975, Volume: 30, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb01844.x | Cited by: 1
William Poole
MONETARY AND DEBT‐MANAGEMENT POLICIES, 1953–55*
Published: 3/1959, Volume: 14, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1959.tb00499.x | Cited by: 0
William Pigott
Tests of Two Models for Valuing Call Options on Stocks with Dividends
Published: 12/1982, Volume: 37, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1982.tb03614.x | Cited by: 18
WILLIAM STERK
Roll has recently formulated an option pricing model which allows dividend payments on the underlying stock. This paper compares the performance of the exact Roll model with a modified, but inexact, Black‐Scholes model. The results indicate that the Roll model prices are significantly closer to actual market prices.
AN APPRAISAL OF THE OHIO AXLE‐MILE TRUCK TAX*
Published: 3/1958, Volume: 13, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1958.tb04183.x | Cited by: 0
William Joseph Weiskopf
A GENERAL CLASS OF THREE‐PARAMETER RISK MEASURES: COMMENT
Published: 3/1975, Volume: 30, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb03176.x | Cited by: 1
William H. Jean
Books Recieved
Published: 9/1958, Volume: 13, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1958.tb04214.x | Cited by: 1
Clyde William Phelps
MONETARY POLICY EFFECTIVENESS: THE CASE OF A POSITIVELY SLOPED I S CURVE
Published: 12/1971, Volume: 26, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01749.x | Cited by: 7
William L. Silber
MONETARY CONTROL AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF MONEY*
Published: 9/1964, Volume: 19, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02876.x | Cited by: 0
William G. Dewald
BOOKS RECEIVED
Published: 3/1955, Volume: 10, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1955.tb01573.x | Cited by: 0
Clyde William Phelps
CRITICAL EVALUATION OF PENSION PLANS
Published: 5/1968, Volume: 23, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00809.x | Cited by: 0
William T. Gibb
A MICRO‐ECONOMETRIC INVESTIGATION OF MULTI‐OBJECTIVE FIRMS
Published: 9/1977, Volume: 32, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03322.x | Cited by: 4
William L. Beedles
DISCUSSION
Published: 5/1970, Volume: 25, Issue: 2 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00519.x | Cited by: 4
William F. Sharpe
TAX LAW, LOCK‐INS, AND BANK PORTFOLIO CHOICE*
Published: 12/1965, Volume: 20, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb02935.x | Cited by: 0
William F. Beazer
COMPETITION FOR DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANK AND NONBANK FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES*
Published: 12/1967, Volume: 22, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1967.tb00312.x | Cited by: 0
William S. Townsend
BOOKS RECEIVED
Published: 12/1960, Volume: 15, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1960.tb02785.x | Cited by: 0
Clyde William Phelps
BOOKS RECEIVED
Published: 9/1959, Volume: 14, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1959.tb00136.x | Cited by: 0
Clyde William Phelps
LARGE MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS AS SUPPLIERS OF FUNDS TO THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Published: 12/1958, Volume: 13, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1958.tb04218.x | Cited by: 6
William J. Frazer
REPLY
Published: 12/1973, Volume: 28, Issue: 5 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01467.x | Cited by: 0
William L. Silber
THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM';S “BILLS ONLY” POLICY*
Published: 3/1964, Volume: 19, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb00757.x | Cited by: 0
William Eli Whitesell
CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK*
Published: 9/1964, Volume: 19, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x | Cited by: 4017
William F. Sharpe
INVESTMENT CRITERIA OF OPEN‐END INVESTMENT COMPANIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION*
Published: 9/1967, Volume: 22, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1967.tb02991.x | Cited by: 0
William W. Reints
THE CAPITAL ACCOUNT IN THE UNITED STATES BALANCE OF PAYMENTS*
Published: 9/1968, Volume: 23, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00854.x | Cited by: 0
William H. Branson
MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS OF BANK CHARGE ACCOUNT PLANS*
Published: 3/1957, Volume: 12, Issue: 1 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1957.tb04109.x | Cited by: 0
William H. Fichthorn
CAPITALIZATION OF THE PROPERTY TAX: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY*
Published: 9/1971, Volume: 26, Issue: 4 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00939.x | Cited by: 0
William B. Conway
DEPRECIATION AND THE 1954 INTERNAL REVENUE CODE
Published: 9/1955, Volume: 10, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1955.tb01279.x | Cited by: 1
William F. Hellmuth
THE SECULAR TREND OF INCOME VELOCITY IN JAPAN, 1879–1940*
Published: 9/1963, Volume: 18, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1963.tb02860.x | Cited by: 0
William C. Hoekendorf
ANALYSIS AND ADMINISTRATION OF CONVENIENCE‐AND‐ADVANTAGE LICENSING IN THE SMALL‐LOAN INDUSTRY*
Published: 6/1971, Volume: 26, Issue: 3 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01742.x | Cited by: 1
William Lee Sartoris