The Journal of Finance

Explaining Forward Exchange Bias…Intraday

Published: 09/01/1995   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04061.x

RICHARD K. LYONS, ANDREW K. ROSE

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of fixed‐rate crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the European Monetary System, we find this prediction is borne out.

Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment

Published: 12/17/2002   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00045

Takatoshi Ito, Richard K. Lyons, Michael T. Melvin

We provide evidence of private information in the foreign exchange market. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch‐return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules. We then exploit microstructure theory to discriminate between the two alternatives: private information and mispricing. Four key results support the predictions of private‐information models. Three of these involve changes in the intraday volatility U‐shape. The fourth is that opening trade causes mispricing's share in variance to fall.