The Journal of Finance

The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.

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Canada's Dual Class Shares: Further Evidence on the Market Value of Cash Dividends

Published: December 1988   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb03961.x

WARREN BAILEY

The Canada Income Tax Act of 1971 permitted Canadian corporations to create two classes of equity, one paying ordinary cash income and the other paying capital gains income. Cash‐paying shares have often sold at a premium. Empirical results indicate that the premium is largely explained by the relative value of the dividends paid and by costs imposed on investors by stock dividend payment and share conversion procedures. Premiums for a few firms also reflect the relative liquidity of the two classes of shares. No evidence exists that investors prefer cash income to equal amounts of capital gains.


An Empirical Investigation of the Market for Comex Gold Futures Options

Published: December 1987   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04360.x

WARREN BAILEY

Option‐pricing models that assume a constant interest rate may misprice futures options if the interest rate fluctuates significantly or if the price of the underlying asset is correlated with the interest rate. The futures option‐pricing model of Ramaswamy and Sundaresan allows for a stochastic interest rate and correlation of the underlying asset's price with the interest rate. Using a data set of daily closing prices for Comex gold futures options, this paper tests the Ramaswamy and Sundaresan model against a constant interest rate model. Results indicate that the stochastic interest rate model is a superior predictor of market prices.


Default Premiums in Commodity Markets: Theory and Evidence

Published: July 1991   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03777.x

WARREN BAILEY, EDWARD NG

We model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the “Hunt Brothers”episode. Changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period. Results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant, priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs. The evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets.


Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis

Published: June 1993   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04727.x

WARREN BAILEY, K. C. CHAN

We provide evidence that the spread between commodity spot and futures prices (the basis) reflects the macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets. The basis of many commodities is correlated with the stock index dividend yield and corporate bond quality spread. Explanatory power is related to exposure to macroeconomic fluctuations: about 40 percent of the variation in the basis of a portfolio of commodities with high business cycle sensitivity is explained by the stock and bond yields. Further diagnostics indicate that these associations are largely due to the presence of risk premiums, rather than spot price forecasts, in the basis.


Depositary Receipts, Country Funds, and the Peso Crash: The Intraday Evidence

Published: 12/17/2002   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00303

Warren Bailey, Kalok Chan, Y. Peter Chung

We study the intraday impact of exchange rate news on emerging market American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and closed‐end country funds during the 1994 Mexican peso crisis. Peso exchange‐rate changes affect prices and trading volumes of Latin American equities, and some closed‐end fund behavior is consistent with “noise trader” theories of small investors. However, there is no evidence that peso depreciation triggers a significant sell‐off of non‐Mexican securities or that other non‐Mexican trading patterns change at times of high peso news flow. Thus, the “Tequila Effect” is largely confined to price changes.


Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses

Published: 11/07/2003   |   DOI: 10.1046/j.1540-6261.2003.00613.x

Warren Bailey, Haitao Li, Connie X. Mao, Rui Zhong

With the adoption of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), market behavior around earnings releases displays no significant change in return volatility (after controlling for decimalization of stock trading) but significant increases in trading volume due to difference in opinion. Analyst forecast dispersion increases, and increases in other measures of disagreement and difference of opinion suggest greater difficulty in forming forecasts beyond the current quarter. Corporations increase the quantity of voluntary disclosures, but only for current quarter earnings. Thus, Reg FD seems to increase the quantity of information available to the public while imposing greater demands on investment professionals.