The Journal of Finance

The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options

Published: 05/28/2014   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12181

BYEONG‐JE AN, ANDREW ANG, TURAN G. BALI, NUSRET CAKICI

Stocks with large increases in call (put) implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have high (low) future returns. Sorting stocks ranked into decile portfolios by past call implied volatilities produces spreads in average returns of approximately 1% per month, and the return differences persist up to six months. The cross section of stock returns also predicts option implied volatilities, with stocks with high past returns tending to have call and put option contracts that exhibit increases in implied volatility over the next month, but with decreasing realized volatility. These predictability patterns are consistent with rational models of informed trading.

Advance Refundings of Municipal Bonds

Published: 03/18/2017   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12506

ANDREW ANG, RICHARD C. GREEN, FRANCIS A. LONGSTAFF, YUHANG XING

The advance refunding of debt is a widespread practice in municipal finance. In an advance refunding, municipalities retire callable bonds early and refund them with bonds with lower coupon rates. We find that 85% of all advance refundings occur at a net present value loss, and that the aggregate losses over the past 20 years exceed $15 billion. We explore why municipalities advance refund their debt at loss. Financially constrained municipalities may face pressure to advance refund since it allows them to reduce short‐term cash outflows. We find strong evidence that financial constraints are a major driver of advance refunding activity.

Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation

Published: 12/17/2002   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00319

Klaas P. Baks, Andrew Metrick, Jessica Wachter

This paper analyzes mutual‐fund performance from an investor's perspective. We study the portfolio‐choice problem for a mean‐variance investor choosing among a risk‐free asset, index funds, and actively managed mutual funds. To solve this problem, we employ a Bayesian method of performance evaluation; a key innovation in our approach is the development of a flexible set of prior beliefs about managerial skill. We then apply our methodology to a sample of 1,437 mutual funds. We find that some extremely skeptical prior beliefs nevertheless lead to economically significant allocations to active managers.

Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?

Published: 03/01/1990   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb05079.x

RANDALL MORCK, ANDREI SHLEIFER, ROBERT W. VISHNY

In a sample of 326 US acquisitions between 1975 and 1987, three types of acquisitions have systematically lower and predominantly negative announcement period returns to bidding firms. The returns to bidding shareholders are lower when their firm diversifies, when it buys a rapidly growing target, and when its managers performed poorly before the acquisition. These results suggest that managerial objectives may drive acquisitions that reduce bidding firms' values.

Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk

Published: 12/01/1994   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb04772.x

JOSEF LAKONISHOK, ANDREI SHLEIFER, ROBERT W. VISHNY

For many years, scholars and investment professionals have argued that value strategies outperform the market. These value strategies call for buying stocks that have low prices relative to earnings, dividends, book assets, or other measures of fundamental value. While there is some agreement that value strategies produce higher returns, the interpretation of why they do so is more controversial. This article provides evidence that value strategies yield higher returns because these strategies exploit the suboptimal behavior of the typical investor and not because these strategies are fundamentally riskier.

Information and Incentives Inside the Firm: Evidence from Loan Officer Rotation

Published: 05/07/2010   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01553.x

ANDREW HERTZBERG, JOSE MARIA LIBERTI, DANIEL PARAVISINI

We present evidence that reassigning tasks among agents can alleviate moral hazard in communication. A rotation policy that routinely reassigns loan officers to borrowers of a commercial bank affects the officers' reporting behavior. When an officer anticipates rotation, reports are more accurate and contain more bad news about the borrower's repayment prospects. As a result, the rotation policy makes bank lending decisions more sensitive to officer reports. The threat of rotation improves communication because self‐reporting bad news has a smaller negative effect on an officer's career prospects than bad news exposed by a successor.

Why Do Foreign Firms Leave U.S. Equity Markets?

Published: 07/15/2010   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01577.x

CRAIG DOIDGE, G. ANDREW KAROLYI, RENÉ M. STULZ

Foreign firms terminate their Securities and Exchange Commission registration in the aftermath of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) because they no longer require outside funds to finance growth opportunities. Deregistering firms’ insiders benefit from greater discretion to consume private benefits without having to raise higher cost funds. Foreign firms with more agency problems have worse stock‐price reactions to the adoption of Rule 12h‐6 in 2007, which made deregistration easier, than those firms more adversely affected by the compliance costs of SOX. Stock‐price reactions to deregistration announcements are negative, but less so under Rule 12h‐6, and more so for firms that raise fewer funds externally.

Risk Overhang and Loan Portfolio Decisions: Small Business Loan Supply before and during the Financial Crisis

Published: 09/04/2015   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12356

ROBERT DEYOUNG, ANNE GRON, GӦKHAN TORNA, ANDREW WINTON

We estimate a structural model of bank portfolio lending and find that the typical U.S. community bank reduced its business lending during the global financial crisis. The decline in business credit was driven by increased risk overhang effects (consistent with a reduction in the liquidity of assets held on bank balance sheets) and by reduced loan supply elasticities suggestive of credit rationing (consistent with an increase in lender risk aversion). Nevertheless, we identify a group of strategically focused relationship banks that made and maintained higher levels of business loans during the crisis.

The Joy of Giving or Assisted Living? Using Strategic Surveys to Separate Public Care Aversion from Bequest Motives

Published: 03/21/2011   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2010.01641.x

JOHN AMERIKS, ANDREW CAPLIN, STEVEN LAUFER, STIJN VAN NIEUWERBURGH

The “annuity puzzle,” conveying the apparently low interest of retirees in longevity insurance, is central to household finance. Two possible explanations are “public care aversion” (PCA), retiree aversion to simultaneously running out of wealth and being in need of long‐term care, and an intentional bequest motive. To disentangle the relative importance of PCA and bequest motive, we estimate a structural model of the retirement phase using a novel survey instrument that includes hypothetical questions. We identify PCA as very significant and find bequest motives that spread deep into the middle class. Our results highlight potential interest in annuities that make allowance for long‐term care expenses.

Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns

Published: 07/06/2019   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12833

PEDRO BORDALO, NICOLA GENNAIOLI, RAFAEL LA PORTA, ANDREI SHLEIFER

We revisit La Porta's finding that returns on stocks with the most optimistic analyst long‐term earnings growth forecasts are lower than those on stocks with the most pessimistic forecasts. We document the joint dynamics of fundamentals, expectations, and returns of these portfolios, and explain the facts using a model of belief formation based on the representativeness heuristic. Analysts forecast fundamentals from observed earnings growth, but overreact to news by exaggerating the probability of states that have become more likely. We find support for the model's predictions. A quantitative estimation of the model accounts for the key patterns in the data.

The Cross Section of MBS Returns

Published: 06/15/2021   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13055

PETER DIEP, ANDREA L. EISFELDT, SCOTT RICHARDSON

We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage‐Backed Security (MBS) returns. MBS earn risk premia as compensation for their exposure to prepayment risk. We measure prepayment risk and estimate risk loadings using prepayment forecasts versus realizations. Estimated loadings on prepayment risk decrease monotonically in securities' coupons relative to the par coupon, consistent with the predicted effect of prepayment on bond value. Prepayment risk appears to be priced by specialized MBS investors. The price of prepayment risk changes sign over time with the sign of a representative MBS investor's exposure to prepayment shocks.

Agency Problems and Dividend Policies around the World

Published: 03/31/2007   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00199

Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez‐de‐Silanes, Andrei Shleifer, Robert W. Vishny

This paper outlines and tests two agency models of dividends. According to the “outcome model,” dividends are paid because minority shareholders pressure corporate insiders to disgorge cash. According to the “substitute model,” insiders interested in issuing equity in the future pay dividends to establish a reputation for decent treatment of minority shareholders. The first model predicts that stronger minority shareholder rights should be associated with higher dividend payouts; the second model predicts the opposite. Tests on a cross section of 4,000 companies from 33 countries with different levels of minority shareholder rights support the outcome agency model of dividends.

Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency

Published: 04/18/2012   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb04825.x

RAFAEL LA PORTA, JOSEF LAKONISHOK, ANDREI SHLEIFER, ROBERT VISHNY

This article examines the hypothesis that the superior return to so‐called value stocks is the result of expectational errors made by investors. We study stock price reactions around earnings announcements for value and glamour stocks over a 5‐year period after portfolio formation. The announcement returns suggest that a significant portion of the return difference between value and glamour stocks is attributable to earnings surprises that are systematically more positive for value stocks. The evidence is inconsistent with a risk‐based explanation for the return differential.

Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading

Published: 09/04/2015   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12357

ANDREW ELLUL, CHOTIBHAK JOTIKASTHIRA, CHRISTIAN T. LUNDBLAD, YIHUI WANG

Accounting rules, through their interactions with capital regulations, affect financial institutions’ trading behavior. The insurance industry provides a laboratory to explore these interactions: life insurers have greater flexibility than property and casualty insurers to hold speculative‐grade assets at historical cost, and the degree to which life insurers recognize market values differs across U.S. states. During the financial crisis, insurers facing a lesser degree of market value recognition are less likely to sell downgraded asset‐backed securities. To improve their capital positions, these insurers disproportionately resort to gains trading, selectively selling otherwise unrelated bonds with high unrealized gains, transmitting shocks across markets.

Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation

Published: 06/01/1990   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03695.x

J. BRADFORD DE LONG, ANDREI SHLEIFER, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS, ROBERT J. WALDMANN

Analyses of rational speculation usually presume that it dampens fluctuations caused by “noise” traders. This is not necessarily the case if noise traders follow positive‐feedback strategies—buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. It may pay to jump on the bandwagon and purchase ahead of noise demand. If rational speculators' early buying triggers positive‐feedback trading, then an increase in the number of forward‐looking speculators can increase volatility about fundamentals. This model is consistent with a number of empirical observations about the correlation of asset returns, the overreaction of prices to news, price bubbles, and expectations.

Tax‐Induced Trading: The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Stock Market Activity

Published: 06/01/1989   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb05060.x

PAUL J. BOLSTER, LAWRENCE B. LINDSEY, ANDREW MITRUSI

The end of favorable tax treatment for long‐term capital gains caused investors to reassess traditional tax‐induced trading strategies. This study compares trading behavior in December 1986 and January 1987 with previous years. Our results indicate that these tax code changes had a powerful effect on trading behavior. Relative trading volume was considerably higher in December 1986 for long‐term winners but not significantly lower for long‐term losers. Results also indicate altered trading patterns based on short‐term gains in December 1986 and for long‐term winners in January 1987.

The Effect of Three Mile Island on Utility Bond Risk Premia: A Note

Published: 03/01/1986   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04504.x

W. BRIAN BARRETT, ANDREA J. HEUSON, ROBERT W. KOLB

Changes in Interstate Banking Laws: The Impact on Shareholder Wealth

Published: 12/01/1990   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03735.x

HAROLD A. BLACK, M. ANDREW FIELDS, ROBERT L. SCHWEITZER

This study examines the impact on shareholder wealth of changes in interstate banking laws. The research demonstrates that changes in state statutes which allow interstate banking have a positive impact on the stock prices of regional banking organizations and a negative impact on the stock prices of money center banks. Interstate banking statutes initially exclude those states in which the money center banks are headquartered. The findings provide evidence that, by excluding money center banks from expansion across state lines, the competition from the regional banks may have an adverse competitive effect on the money center banks.

The Flash Crash: High‐Frequency Trading in an Electronic Market

Published: 01/25/2017   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12498

ANDREI KIRILENKO, ALBERT S. KYLE, MEHRDAD SAMADI, TUGKAN TUZUN

We study intraday market intermediation in an electronic market before and during a period of large and temporary selling pressure. On May 6, 2010, U.S. financial markets experienced a systemic intraday event—the Flash Crash—where a large automated selling program was rapidly executed in the E‐mini S&P 500 stock index futures market. Using audit trail transaction‐level data for the E‐mini on May 6 and the previous three days, we find that the trading pattern of the most active nondesignated intraday intermediaries (classified as High‐Frequency Traders) did not change when prices fell during the Flash Crash.

Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior

Published: 11/25/2009   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01509.x

JAMES J. CHOI, DAVID LAIBSON, BRIGITTE C. MADRIAN, ANDREW METRICK

We show that individual investors over‐extrapolate from their personal experience when making savings decisions. Investors who experience particularly rewarding outcomes from 401(k) saving—a high average and/or low variance return—increase their 401(k) savings rate more than investors who have less rewarding experiences. This finding is not driven by aggregate time‐series shocks, income effects, rational learning about investing skill, investor fixed effects, or time‐varying investor‐level heterogeneity that is correlated with portfolio allocations to stock, bond, and cash asset classes. We discuss implications for the equity premium puzzle and interventions aimed at improving household financial outcomes.