The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.
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A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations Among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates
Published: 12/01/1985 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02389.x
CHRISTOPHER JAMES, SERGIO KOREISHA, MEGAN PARTCH
Previous research has documented a negative relation between common stock returns and inflation. Recently, Fama [3] and Geske and Roll [6] have argued that this relation results from a more fundamental one between real activity and expected inflation. Stock returns, they argue, signal changes in real activity, which in turn affect expected inflation. However, unlike Fama, Geske and Roll argue that changes in real activity result in changes in money supply growth, which in turn affect expected inflation. Empirical tests have analyzed separately each link in the proposed causal chain. In this article, we investigate simultaneously the relations among stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money supply changes using a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model. Our empirical results strongly support Geske and Roll's reversed causality model.
Managers' Trading Around Stock Repurchases
Published: 12/01/1992 | DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04690.x
D. SCOTT LEE, WAYNE H. MIKKELSON, M. MEGAN PARTCH
We analyze personal open market trades by managers around stock repurchases by tender offer. With the exception of Dutch auction offers, managers trade their firm's shares prior to repurchase announcements as though repurchases convey favorable inside information to outsiders. Prior to fixed price repurchase offers that do not follow takeover‐related events, managers increase their buying and reduce their selling of their firm's shares. Prior to repurchases that follow takeover‐related events, only a decrease in selling is found. No abnormal trading precedes Dutch auction repurchase offers.