The Journal of Finance

Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles

Published: 11/27/2005   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00670.x

Ravi Bansal, Amir Yaron

We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (1) a small long‐run predictable component, and (2) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin's (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better long‐run growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the risk‐free rate, and the volatility of the market return, risk‐free rate, and the price–dividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is time‐varying.

Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts

Published: 12/17/2002   |   DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00487

Ravi Bansal, Hao Zhou

We develop a term structure model where the short interest rate and the market price of risks are subject to discrete regime shifts. Empirical evidence from efficient method of moments estimation provides considerable support for the regime shifts model. Standard models, which include affine specifications with up to three factors, are sharply rejected in the data. Our diagnostics show that only the regime shifts model can account for the well‐documented violations of the expectations hypothesis, the observed conditional volatility, and the conditional correlation across yields. We find that regimes are intimately related to business cycles.

No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach

Published: 09/01/1993   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04753.x

RAVI BANSAL, S. VISWANATHAN

We argue that arbitrage‐pricing theories (APT) imply the existence of a low‐dimensional nonnegative nonlinear pricing kernel. In contrast to standard constructs of the APT, we do not assume a linear factor structure on the payoffs. This allows us to price both primitive and derivative securities. Semi‐nonparametric techniques are used to estimate the pricing kernel and test the theory. Empirical results using size‐based portfolio returns and yields on bonds reject the nested capital asset‐pricing model and linear APT and support the nonlinear APT. Diagnostics show that the nonlinear model is more capable of explaining variations in small firm returns.

A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing

Published: 12/01/1993   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb05126.x

RAVI BANSAL, DAVID A. HSIEH, S. VISWANATHAN

This paper uses a nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model, a conditional linear model, and an unconditional linear model to price international equities, bonds, and forward currency contracts. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model requires no restrictions on the payoff space, allowing it to price payoffs of options, forward contracts, and other derivative securities. Only the nonlinear arbitrage‐pricing model does an adequate job of explaining the time series behavior of a cross section of international returns.

Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns

Published: 08/12/2005   |   DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00776.x

RAVI BANSAL, ROBERT F. DITTMAR, CHRISTIAN T. LUNDBLAD

We show that aggregate consumption risks embodied in cash flows can account for the puzzling differences in risk premia across book‐to‐market, momentum, and size‐sorted portfolios. The dynamics of aggregate consumption and cash flow growth rates, modeled as a vector autoregression, are used to measure the consumption beta of discounted cash flows. Differences in these cash flow betas account for more than 60% of the cross‐sectional variation in risk premia. The market price for risk in cash flows is highly significant. We argue that cash flow risk is important for interpreting differences in risk compensation across assets.

Volatility, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices

Published: 09/30/2013   |   DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12110

RAVI BANSAL, DANA KIKU, IVAN SHALIASTOVICH, AMIR YARON

How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that an increase in macroeconomic volatility is associated with an increase in discount rates and a decline in consumption. We develop a framework in which cash flow, discount rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia and show that volatility plays a significant role in explaining the joint dynamics of returns to human capital and equity. Volatility risk carries a sizable positive risk premium and helps account for the cross section of expected returns. Our evidence demonstrates that volatility is important for understanding expected returns and macroeconomic fluctuations.