The Journal of Finance

The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.

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Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns

Published: 6/2001,  Volume: 56,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00347  |  Cited by: 1683

Martin Lettau, Sydney Ludvigson

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth (human capital plus asset holdings) ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and that deviations from this shared trend summarize agents' expectations of future returns on the market portfolio.


Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium

Published: 1/11/2007,  Volume: 62,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01201.x  |  Cited by: 324

MARTIN LETTAU, JESSICA A. WACHTER

We propose a dynamic risk‐based model that captures the value premium. Firms are modeled as long‐lived assets distinguished by the timing of cash flows. The stochastic discount factor is specified so that shocks to aggregate dividends are priced, but shocks to the discount rate are not. The model implies that growth firms covary more with the discount rate than do value firms, which covary more with cash flows. When calibrated to explain aggregate stock market behavior, the model accounts for the observed value premium, the high Sharpe ratios on value firms, and the poor performance of the CAPM.


Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing

Published: 5/2019,  Volume: 74,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12772  |  Cited by: 69

MARTIN LETTAU, SYDNEY C. LUDVIGSON, SAI MA

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and nonequity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk premium, commensurate with recent asset pricing models in which redistributive shocks shift the share of income between the wealthy, who finance consumption primarily out of asset ownership, and workers, who finance consumption primarily out of wages and salaries.


Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation

Published: 1/31/2022,  Volume: 77,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13107  |  Cited by: 107

FRANCESCO BIANCHI, MARTIN LETTAU, SYDNEY C. LUDVIGSON

We document large, longer term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate‐ spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macrofinance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy rule, with long‐term consequences for the real interest rate. Estimates imply that two‐thirds of the decline in the real interest rate since the early 1980s is attributable to regime changes in monetary policy. The model explains how infrequent changes in the stance of monetary policy can generate persistent changes in asset valuations and the equity premium.


Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk

Published: 2/2001,  Volume: 56,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00318  |  Cited by: 1735

John Y. Campbell, Martin Lettau, Burton G. Malkiel, Yexiao Xu

This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period from 1962 to 1997 there has been a noticeable increase in firm‐level volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly, correlations among individual stocks and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, whereas the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures move together countercyclically and help to predict GDP growth. Market volatility tends to lead the other volatility series. Factors that may be responsible for these findings are suggested.


INCREASED TAXATION WITH INCREASED ACCEPTABILITY—A DISCUSSION OF NET WORTH TAXATION AS A FEDERAL REVENUE ALTERNATIVE

Published: 5/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01793.x  |  Cited by: 0

Martin David


COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIUM CONTINGENT COMMODITIES AND INFORMATION*

Published: 3/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03253.x  |  Cited by: 0

Martin Shubik


The Method of Payment in Corporate Acquisitions, Investment Opportunities, and Management Ownership

Published: 9/1996,  Volume: 51,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb04068.x  |  Cited by: 403

KENNETH J. MARTIN

This article examines the motives underlying the payment method in corporate acquisitions. The findings support the notion that the higher the acquirer's growth opportunities, the more likely the acquirer is to use stock to finance an acquisition. Acquirer managerial ownership is not related to the probability of stock financing over small and large ranges of ownership, but is negatively related over a middle range. In addition, the likelihood of stock financing increases with higher pre‐acquisition market and acquiring firm stock returns. It decreases with an acquirer's higher cash availability, higher institutional shareholdings and blockholdings, and in tender offers.


CAPITAL RATIONING: n AUTHORS IN SEARCH OF A PLOT

Published: 12/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03345.x  |  Cited by: 41

H. Martin Weingartner


MONETARY POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS*

Published: 3/1963,  Volume: 18,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1963.tb01617.x  |  Cited by: 0

William McChesney Martin


AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF THE MARKET FOR NEW CORPORATE BONDS IN REFLECTING TWO SOURCES OF ESSENTIALLY FREE INFORMATION, 1960–1971*

Published: 9/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03115.x  |  Cited by: 0

John D. Martin


Another Puzzle: The Growth in Actively Managed Mutual Funds

Published: 7/1996,  Volume: 51,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb02707.x  |  Cited by: 1439

MARTIN J. GRUBER

Mutual funds represent one of the fastest growing type of financial intermediary in the American economy. The question remains as to why mutual funds and in particular actively managed mutual funds have grown so fast, when their performance on average has been inferior to that of index funds. One possible explanation of why investors buy actively managed open end funds lies in the fact that they are bought and sold at net asset value, and thus management ability may not be priced. If management ability exists and it is not included in the price of open end funds, then performance should be predictable. If performance is predictable and at least some investors are aware of this, then cash flows into and out of funds should be predictable by the very same metrics that predict performance. Finally, if predictors exist and at least some investors act on these predictors in investing in mutual funds, the return on new cash flows should be better than the average return for all investors in these funds. This article presents empirical evidence on all of these issues and shows that investors in actively managed mutual funds may have been more rational than we have assumed.


A STUDY OF CREDITORS' PRACTICES IN THE FINANCING OF RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS*

Published: 12/1959,  Volume: 14,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1959.tb00147.x  |  Cited by: 0

Mother Martin Byrne


PRICING A BANKING SERVICE—THE SPECIAL CHECKING ACCOUNT

Published: 9/1960,  Volume: 15,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1960.tb01601.x  |  Cited by: 0

Martin H. Seiden


AN INVESTOR EXPECTATIONS STOCK PRICE PREDICTIVE MODEL USING CLOSED‐END FUND PREMIUMS

Published: 3/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01346.x  |  Cited by: 101

Martin E. Zweig


DETERMINANTS OF COMMON STOCK PRICES*

Published: 12/1966,  Volume: 21,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1966.tb00282.x  |  Cited by: 1

Martin Jay Gruber


DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1967,  Volume: 22,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1967.tb00003.x  |  Cited by: 1

H. Martin Weingartner


THE EFFECT OF SHARE REPURCHASE ON THE VALUE OF THE FIRM*

Published: 3/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb03002.x  |  Cited by: 13

Edwin Elton, Martin Gruber


The Perception of Dependence, Investment Decisions, and Stock Prices

Published: 12/13/2020,  Volume: 76,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12993  |  Cited by: 41

MICHAEL UNGEHEUER, MARTIN WEBER

How do investors perceive dependence between stock returns; and how does their perception of dependence affect investments and stock prices? We show experimentally that investors understand differences in dependence, but not in terms of correlation. Participants invest as if applying a simple counting heuristic for the frequency of comovement. They diversify more when the frequency of comovement is lower even if correlation is higher due to dependence in the tails. Building on our experimental findings, we empirically analyze U.S. stock returns. We identify a robust return premium for stocks with high frequencies of comovement with the market return.


The Market for Conflicted Advice

Published: 11/8/2019,  Volume: 75,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12848  |  Cited by: 22

BRIANA CHANG, MARTIN SZYDLOWSKI

We present a model of the market for advice in which advisers have conflicts of interest and compete for heterogeneous customers through information provision. The competitive equilibrium features information dispersion and partial disclosure. Although conflicted fees lead to distorted information, they are irrelevant for customers' welfare: banning conflicted fees improves only the information quality, not customers' welfare. Instead, financial literacy education for the least informed customers can improve all customers' welfare because of a spillover effect. Furthermore, customers who trade through advisers realize lower average returns, which rationalizes empirical findings.


How Does Household Portfolio Diversification Vary with Financial Literacy and Financial Advice?

Published: 3/12/2015,  Volume: 70,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12231  |  Cited by: 472

HANS‐MARTIN VON GAUDECKER

Household investment mistakes are an important concern for researchers and policymakers alike. Portfolio underdiversification ranks among those mistakes that are potentially most costly. However, its roots and empirical importance are poorly understood. I estimate quantitatively meaningful diversification statistics and investigate their relationship with key variables. Nearly all households that score high on financial literacy or rely on professionals or private contacts for advice achieve reasonable investment outcomes. Compared to these groups, households with below‐median financial literacy that trust their own decision‐making capabilities lose an expected 50 bps on average. All group differences stem from the top of the loss distribution.


REPLY

Published: 12/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00327.x  |  Cited by: 2

Edwin Elton, Martin Gruber


Spanning with Short‐Selling Restrictions

Published: 6/1993,  Volume: 48,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04740.x  |  Cited by: 9

MARTIN RAAB, ROBERT SCHWAGER

In principle, the set of attainable payoff vectors is reduced if assets cannot be sold short. However, we show that the original space of payoff vectors is spanned despite short sale restrictions if there is one additional asset whose payoff is a positively weighted sum of the payoffs of the original assets. For example, this condition is automatically fulfilled if the original assets are stocks and the additional asset is an index future consisting of these stocks.


Expected Returns, Time‐varying Risk, and Risk Premia

Published: 6/1994,  Volume: 49,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb05156.x  |  Cited by: 49

MARTIN D. D. EVANS

A new empirical model for intertemporal capital asset pricing is presented that allows both time‐varying risk premia and betas where the latter are identified from the dynamics of the conditional covariance of returns. The model is more successful in explaining the predictable variations in excess returns when the returns on the stock market and corporate bonds are included as risk factors than when the stock market is the single factor. Although changes in the covariance of returns induce variations in the betas, most of the predictable movements in returns are attributed to changes in the risk premia.


Pension Funding, Share Prices, and National Savings

Published: 9/1981,  Volume: 36,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb04885.x  |  Cited by: 76

MARTIN FELDSTEIN, STEPHANIE SELIGMAN

This paper examines empirically the effect of unfunded pension obligations on corporate share prices and discusses the implications of these estimates for national saving, the decline of the stock market in recent years, and the rationality of corporate financial behavior. The analysis uses the information on inflation‐adjusted income and assets which large firms were required to provide for 1976 and subsequent years.The evidence for a sample of nearly 200 manufacturing firms is consistent with the conclusion that share prices fully reflect the value of unfunded pension obligations. Since the conventional accounting measure of the unfunded pension liability has a number of problems (which we examine in the paper), it would be more accurate to say that the data are consistent with the conclusion that shareholders accept the conventional measure as the best available information and reduce share prices by a corresponding amount.The most important implication of the share price response is that the existence of unfunded private pension liabilities does not necessarily entail a reduction in total private saving. Because the pension liability reduces the equity value of the firm, shareholders are given notice of its existence and an incentive to save more themselves. For this reason, unfunded private pensions differ fundamentally from the unfunded Social Security pension and the other unfunded federal government civilian and military pensions.


Repo over the Financial Crisis

Published: 2/10/2025,  Volume: 80,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13406  |  Cited by: 3

ADAM COPELAND, ANTOINE MARTIN

This paper uses new data to provide a comprehensive view of repo activity during the 2007 global financial crisis. We show that activity declined much more in the bilateral segment of the market than in the tri‐party segment. Surprisingly, a large share of the decline in activity is driven by repos backed by Treasury securities. Further, a disproportionate share of the decline in repo activity is connected to securities dealer's market‐making activity. In particular, the evidence suggests that at least part of the decline is not driven by clients pulling away from securities dealers because of counterparty credit concerns.


What Is the Cost of Privatization for Workers?

Published: 5/30/2025,  Volume: 80,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13462  |  Cited by: 6

MARTIN OLSSON, JOACIM TÅG

Privatization of state‐owned enterprises is on the agenda across the globe. Using Swedish data covering two decades, we show that productivity gains and headcount reductions are associated with economic costs for incumbent workers. Workers experience income losses and higher unemployment, but half of the losses are covered by the social safety net. We also find small positive effects on entrepreneurship and cash holdings but no meaningful effects on other labor market, family, health, or household finance outcomes. Productivity improves when the CEO is replaced, and the gains outweigh workers' income declines by a factor of between two and six.


Should Derivatives Be Privileged in Bankruptcy?

Published: 11/12/2015,  Volume: 70,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12201  |  Cited by: 64

PATRICK BOLTON, MARTIN OEHMKE

Derivatives enjoy special status in bankruptcy: they are exempt from the automatic stay and effectively senior to virtually all other claims. We propose a corporate finance model to assess the effect of these exemptions on a firm's cost of borrowing and incentives to engage in derivative transactions. While derivatives are value‐enhancing risk management tools, seniority for derivatives can lead to inefficiencies: it transfers credit risk to debtholders, even though this risk is borne more efficiently in the derivative market. Seniority for derivatives is efficient only if it provides sufficient cross‐netting benefits to derivative counterparties that provide hedging services.


FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics

Published: 12/2002,  Volume: 57,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00501  |  Cited by: 132

Martin D. D. Evans

I examine the sources of exchange rate dynamics by focusing on the information structure of FX trading. This structure permits the existence of an equilibrium distribution of transaction prices at a point in time. I develop and estimate a model of the price distribution using data from the Deutsche mark/dollar market that prroduces two striking results: (1) Much of the short‐term volatility in exchange rates comes from sampling the heterogeneous trading decisions of dealers in a distribution that, under normal market conditions, changes comparatively slowly; (2) public news is rarely the predominant source of exchange rate movements over any horizon.


Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia

Published: 2/1998,  Volume: 53,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.75591  |  Cited by: 183

Martin D. D. Evans

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index‐linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time‐varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure.


DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00814.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard T. Pratt, Preston Martin


Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing

Published: 1/10/2008,  Volume: 63,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01314.x  |  Cited by: 624

LARRY G. EPSTEIN, MARTIN SCHNEIDER

When ambiguity‐averse investors process news of uncertain quality, they act as if they take a worst‐case assessment of quality. As a result, they react more strongly to bad news than to good news. They also dislike assets for which information quality is poor, especially when the underlying fundamentals are volatile. These effects induce ambiguity premia that depend on idiosyncratic risk in fundamentals as well as skewness in returns. Moreover, shocks to information quality can have persistent negative effects on prices even if fundamentals do not change.


DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb00981.x  |  Cited by: 0

Robert M. Coen, Martin David


DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1963,  Volume: 18,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1963.tb00728.x  |  Cited by: 1

Albert Ando, Martin J. Bailey


The Maturity Rat Race

Published: 3/7/2013,  Volume: 68,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12005  |  Cited by: 258

MARKUS K. BRUNNERMEIER, MARTIN OEHMKE

Why do some firms, especially financial institutions, finance themselves so short‐term? We show that extreme reliance on short‐term financing may be the outcome of a maturity rat race: a borrower may have an incentive to shorten the maturity of an individual creditor's debt contract because this dilutes other creditors. In response, other creditors opt for shorter maturity contracts as well. This dynamic toward short maturities is present whenever interim information is mostly about the probability of default rather than the recovery in default. For borrowers that cannot commit to a maturity structure, equilibrium financing is inefficiently short‐term.


Weekend Effects on Stock Returns: A Comment

Published: 3/1985,  Volume: 40,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb04956.x  |  Cited by: 27

EDWARD A. DYL, STANLEY A. MARTIN


Report of the Managing Editors of the Journal of Finance for 1987

Published: 7/1988,  Volume: 43,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04612.x  |  Cited by: 0

EDWIN J. ELTON, MARTIN J. GRUBER


THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE CALL OPTION*

Published: 9/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb01319.x  |  Cited by: 4

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber


Volatility, Valuation Ratios, and Bubbles: An Empirical Measure of Market Sentiment

Published: 8/31/2021,  Volume: 76,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13068  |  Cited by: 67

CAN GAO, IAN W. R. MARTIN

We define a sentiment indicator based on option prices, valuation ratios, and interest rates. The indicator can be interpreted as a lower bound on the expected growth in fundamentals that a rational investor would have to perceive to be happy to hold the market. The bound was unusually high in the late 1990s, reflecting dividend growth expectations that in our view were unreasonably optimistic. Our approach exploits two key ingredients. First, we derive a new valuation ratio decomposition that is related to the Campbell–Shiller loglinearization but that resembles the Gordon growth model more closely and has certain other advantages. Second, we introduce a volatility index that provides a lower bound on the market's expected log return.


Report of the Managing Editors of the Journal of Finance for 1986

Published: 7/1987,  Volume: 42,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04588.x  |  Cited by: 2

EDWIN J. ELTON, MARTIN J. GRUBER


Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions

Published: 3/17/2014,  Volume: 69,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12124  |  Cited by: 452

NICOLA GENNAIOLI, ALBERTO MARTIN, STEFANO ROSSI

We present a model of sovereign debt in which, contrary to conventional wisdom, government defaults are costly because they destroy the balance sheets of domestic banks. In our model, better financial institutions allow banks to be more leveraged, thereby making them more vulnerable to sovereign defaults. Our predictions: government defaults should lead to declines in private credit, and these declines should be larger in countries where financial institutions are more developed and banks hold more government bonds. In these same countries, government defaults should be less likely. Using a large panel of countries, we find evidence consistent with these predictions.


VALUATION AND THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR REGULATED INDUSTRIES

Published: 6/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01719.x  |  Cited by: 19

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber


BANKRUPTCY COSTS: SOME EVIDENCE

Published: 5/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03274.x  |  Cited by: 105

Martin J. Gruber, Jerold B. Warner


Thinking about Prices versus Thinking about Returns in Financial Markets

Published: 9/3/2019,  Volume: 74,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12835  |  Cited by: 61

MARKUS GLASER, ZWETELINA ILIEWA, MARTIN WEBER

Prices and returns are alternative ways to present information and to elicit expectations in financial markets. But do investors think of prices and returns in the same way? We present three studies in which subjects differ in the level of expertise, amount of information, and type of incentive scheme. The results are consistent across all studies: asking subjects to forecast returns as opposed to prices results in higher expectations, whereas showing them return charts rather than price charts results in lower expectations. Experience is not a useful remedy but cognitive reflection mitigates the impact of format changes.


PORTFOLIO THEORY WHEN INVESTMENT RELATIVES ARE LOGNORMALLY DISTRIBUTED

Published: 9/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03103.x  |  Cited by: 27

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber


VALUATION AND THE COST OF CAPITAL FOR REGULATED INDUSTRIES: REPLY

Published: 12/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb03033.x  |  Cited by: 7

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber


OPTIMAL INVESTMENT AND FINANCING PATTERNS FOR A FIRM SUBJECT TO REGULATION WITH A LAG

Published: 12/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03349.x  |  Cited by: 6

Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber


Deposit Inflows and Outflows in Failing Banks: The Role of Deposit Insurance

Published: 1/21/2026,  Volume: ,  Issue:   |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70007  |  Cited by: 0

CHRISTOPHER MARTIN, MANJU PURI, ALEXANDER UFIER

Using unique, daily, account‐level data, we investigate deposit outflows and inflows in a distressed bank. We observe an outflow of uninsured depositors following bad regulatory news. Both regular and temporary deposit insurance reduce outflows. We provide important new evidence that, simultaneous with deposit outflows, deposit inflows are first order. Uninsured deposit outflows were largely offset with new insured deposit inflows as the bank approached failure, with the bank increasing term deposit rates. This phenomenon holds in a large sample of banks that faced regulatory action, suggesting that insured deposit inflows are an important mechanism that weakens depositor discipline.


Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options

Published: 11/14/2011,  Volume: 66,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01697.x  |  Cited by: 235

DAVID BACKUS, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, IAN MARTIN

We use equity index options to quantify the distribution of consumption growth disasters. The challenge lies in connecting the risk‐neutral distribution of equity returns implied by options to the true distribution of consumption growth. First, we compare pricing kernels constructed from macro‐finance and option‐pricing models. Second, we compare option prices derived from a macro‐finance model to those we observe. Third, we compare the distribution of consumption growth derived from option prices using a macro‐finance model to estimates based on macroeconomic data. All three perspectives suggest that options imply smaller probabilities of extreme outcomes than have been estimated from macroeconomic data.


Report of the Managing Editors of the Journal of Finance for 1984

Published: 7/1985,  Volume: 40,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05034.x  |  Cited by: 0

EDWIN J. ELTON, MARTIN J. GRUBER