The Journal of Finance

The Journal of Finance publishes leading research across all the major fields of finance. It is one of the most widely cited journals in academic finance, and in all of economics. Each of the six issues per year reaches over 8,000 academics, finance professionals, libraries, and government and financial institutions around the world. The journal is the official publication of The American Finance Association, the premier academic organization devoted to the study and promotion of knowledge about financial economics.

AFA members can log in to view full-text articles below.

View past issues


Search the Journal of Finance:






Search results: 28.

Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?

Published: 2/2000,  Volume: 55,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00208  |  Cited by: 170

David A. Chapman, Neil D. Pearson

Aït‐Sahalia (1996) and Stanton (1997) use nonparametric estimators applied to short‐term interest rate data to conclude that the drift function contains important nonlinearities. We study the finite‐sample properties of their estimators by applying them to simulated sample paths of a square‐root diffusion. Although the drift function is linear, both estimators suggest nonlinearities of the type and magnitude reported in Aït‐Sahalia (1996) and Stanton (1997). Combined with the results of a weighted least squares estimator, this evidence implies that nonlinearity of the short rate drift is not a robust stylized fact.


Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model

Published: 9/1994,  Volume: 49,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb02454.x  |  Cited by: 304

NEIL D. PEARSON, TONG‐SHENG SUN

We propose an empirical method that utilizes the conditional density of the state variables to estimate and test a term structure model with known price formulae, using data on both discount and coupon bonds. The method is applied to an extension of a two‐factor model due to Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985; CIR). Our results show that estimates based on only bills imply unreasonably large price errors for longer maturities. We reject the original CIR model using a likelihood ratio test, and conclude that the extended CIR model also fails to provide a good description of the Treasury market.


Anomalies and Their Short‐Sale Costs

Published: 9/30/2025,  Volume: 80,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13501  |  Cited by: 18

DMITRIY MURAVYEV, NEIL D. PEARSON, JOSHUA M. POLLET

Short‐sale costs eliminate the abnormal returns on asset pricing anomaly portfolios. While many anomalies persist out‐of‐sample before accounting for short‐sale costs, they cannot be exploited with long‐short strategies due to stock borrow fees. Using a comprehensive sample of 162 anomalies, the average long‐short portfolio return is a significant 0.14% per month before short‐sale costs, and the returns are due to the short leg. However, the average is −0.01% once returns are adjusted for borrow fees. Moreover, anomalies are not profitable even before fees if the high‐fee observations, representing 12% of stock dates, are excluded from the analysis.


Is There a Risk Premium in the Stock Lending Market? Evidence from Equity Options

Published: 4/25/2022,  Volume: 77,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13129  |  Cited by: 58

DMITRIY MURAVYEV, NEIL D. PEARSON, JOSHUA M. POLLET

Recent research argues that uncertainty about future stock borrowing fees hinders short‐selling, and this risk explains the performance of short strategies. One possible mechanism is that borrowing fee risk carries a risk premium. Since the present value of the uncertain borrowing fee is reflected in options prices, the difference between option‐implied and realized fees estimates this premium. We find that the risk premium is small. Moreover, if the risk premium is substantial, it should be reflected in the returns to short‐selling stock after adjusting for stock borrowing fees. However, borrowing fee risk does not predict fee‐adjusted returns.


Retail Derivatives and Sentiment: A Sentiment Measure Constructed from Issuances of Retail Structured Equity Products

Published: 6/8/2023,  Volume: 78,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13253  |  Cited by: 8

BRIAN J. HENDERSON, NEIL D. PEARSON, LI WANG

We use retail structured equity product (SEP) issuances to construct a new sentiment measure for large capitalization stocks. The SEP sentiment measure predicts negative abnormal returns on the SEP reference stocks based on a variety of factor models, and also predicts returns in Fama‐MacBeth regressions that include a wide range of covariates. Consistent with our interpretation that SEP issuances reflect investor sentiment, aggregate SEP issuances are highly correlated with the Baker‐Wurgler sentiment index. Tobit regressions reveal that proxies for attention and sentiment predict SEP issuance volumes, providing additional evidence consistent with the hypothesis that SEP issuances reflect sentiment.


A PROPOSAL FOR PRECISE DEFINITIONS OF “TRADING ON THE EQUITY” AND “LEVERAGE”:REPLY

Published: 3/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04254.x  |  Cited by: 0

Pearson Hunt


A PROPOSAL FOR PRECISE DEFINITIONS OF “TRADING ON THE EQUITY” AND “LEVERAGE”

Published: 9/1961,  Volume: 16,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb02836.x  |  Cited by: 1

Pearson Hunt


MATERIALS AND METHODS OF TEACHING BUSINESS FINANCE (III)

Published: 9/1950,  Volume: 5,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1950.tb03791.x  |  Cited by: 2

Pearson Hunt


THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES AND THE MATURITY COMPOSITION OF THE FEDERAL DEBT

Published: 5/1967,  Volume: 22,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1967.tb00015.x  |  Cited by: 11

Neil Wallace


Executive Stock Options: Early Exercise Provisions and Risk‐taking Incentives

Published: 9/19/2006,  Volume: 61,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.01064.x  |  Cited by: 92

NEIL BRISLEY

Traditional executive stock option plans allow fixed numbers of options to vest peri‐odically, independent of stock price performance. Because such options may climb deep in‐the‐money long before the manager can exercise them, they can exacerbate risk aversion in project selection. Making the proportion of options that vest a gradually increasing function of the stock price can ensure that appropriate numbers of options are retained while they provide risk‐taking incentives, but are exercised once they have lost their convexity. “Progressive performance vesting” can allow the firm more efficiently to rebalance the manager's risk‐taking incentives.


THE DEMAND FOR NEW YORK STATE MUTUAL SAVINGS BANK DEPOSITS: 1960–1969

Published: 6/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01724.x  |  Cited by: 0

Neil B. Murphy


THE FISCAL POLICY OF THE KENNEDY‐JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION

Published: 5/1964,  Volume: 19,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb00775.x  |  Cited by: 0

Neil H. Jacoby


A STUDY OF WHOLESALE BANKING BEHAVIOR*

Published: 3/1969,  Volume: 24,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1969.tb00355.x  |  Cited by: 0

Neil B. Murphy


INCIDENCE OF INFLATION UPON CONSUMER SPENDING UNITS, 1949–58*

Published: 9/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04297.x  |  Cited by: 0

Herbert E. Neil


Stochastic Choice in Insurance and Risk Sharing: A Reply

Published: 6/1983,  Volume: 38,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb02520.x  |  Cited by: 2

NEIL A. DOHERTY


THE DEMAND FOR FUNDS BY AMERICAN BUSINESS ENTERPRISES: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT. II*

Published: 3/1949,  Volume: 4,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1949.tb02336.x  |  Cited by: 0

Neil H. Jacoby


THE DEMAND FOR FUNDS BY AMERICAN BUSINESS ENTERPRISES: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT—I*

Published: 10/1948,  Volume: 3,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1948.tb01515.x  |  Cited by: 0

Neil H. Jacoby


AN EXAMINATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF DEPOSIT BEHAVIOR ON THE PERFORMANCE OF COMMERCIAL BANKS' ASSETS*

Published: 9/1964,  Volume: 19,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02877.x  |  Cited by: 0

Clair Neil McRostie


A BEHAVIORAL MODEL FOR COMMERCIAL BANKING*

Published: 9/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00941.x  |  Cited by: 0

David Neil Hyman


A Simple Measure of Price Adjustment Coefficients: A Correction

Published: 3/1996,  Volume: 51,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1996.tb05214.x  |  Cited by: 24

NEIL BRISLEY, MICHAEL THEOBALD


How Much Does Racial Bias Affect Mortgage Lending? Evidence from Human and Algorithmic Credit Decisions

Published: 4/9/2025,  Volume: 80,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13444  |  Cited by: 30

NEIL BHUTTA, AUREL HIZMO, DANIEL RINGO

We assess racial discrimination in mortgage approvals using confidential data on mortgage applications. Minority applicants tend to have lower credit scores and higher leverage, and are less likely to receive algorithmic approval from race‐blind automated underwriting systems (AUS). Observable applicant‐risk factors explain most of the racial disparities in lender denials. Further, exploiting the AUS data, we show there are risk factors we do not observe, and these factors at least partially explain the residual 1 to 2 percentage point denial gaps. We conclude that differential treatment plays a more limited role in generating denial disparities than previous research suggests.


Consumer Ruthlessness and Mortgage Default during the 2007 to 2009 Housing Bust

Published: 8/28/2017,  Volume: 72,  Issue: 6  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.12523  |  Cited by: 105

NEIL BHUTTA, JANE DOKKO, HUI SHAN

From 2007 to 2009 U.S. house prices plunged and mortgage defaults surged. While ostensibly consistent with widespread “ruthless default,” analysis of detailed mortgage and house price data indicates that borrowers do not walk away until they are deeply underwater—far deeper than traditional models predict. The evidence suggests that lender recourse is not the major driver of this result. We argue that emotional and behavioral factors play an important role in decisions to continue paying. Borrower reluctance to walk away implies that the moral hazard cost of default as a form of social insurance may be lower than suspected.


Price Regulation in Property‐Liability Insurance: A Contingent‐Claims Approach

Published: 12/1986,  Volume: 41,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb02529.x  |  Cited by: 120

NEIL A. DOHERTY, JAMES R. GARVEN

A discrete‐time option‐pricing model is used to derive the “fair” rate of return for the property‐liability insurance firm. The rationale for the use of this model is that the financial claims of shareholders, policyholders, and tax authorities can be modeled as European options written on the income generated by the insurer's asset portfolio. This portfolio consists mostly of traded financial assets and is therefore relatively easy to value. By setting the value of the shareholders' option equal to the initial surplus, an implicit solution for the fair insurance price may be derived. Unlike previous insurance regulatory models, this approach addresses the ruin probability of the insurer, as well as nonlinear tax effects.


Acquisition of Divested Assets and Shareholders' Wealth

Published: 12/1987,  Volume: 42,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04365.x  |  Cited by: 64

NEIL W. SICHERMAN, RICHARD H. PETTWAY

The divesting of corporate assets has become quite popular. Previous studies of divestitures have found conflicting impacts upon shareholders' wealth of the buying firm. This study measures the impacts of product‐line relatedness between the acquiring firm and the divested unit and financial weakness of the selling firm upon the abnormal returns to the acquiring firm. Although the study finds that the impact of financial strength of the seller is ambiguous, the purchase of related assets produces more wealth than does the purchase of unrelated divested units. Further, firms that purchase related divested units have larger proportions of insider ownership.


Paying Too Much? Borrower Sophistication and Overpayment in the U.S. Mortgage Market

Published: 12/9/2025,  Volume: 81,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70001  |  Cited by: 6

NEIL BHUTTA, ANDREAS FUSTER, AUREL HIZMO

Comparing mortgage rates that borrowers obtain to rates that lenders could offer for the same loan, we find that many homeowners significantly overpay for their mortgage, with overpayment varying across borrower types and with market interest rates. Survey data reveal that borrowers' mortgage knowledge and shopping behavior strongly correlate with the rates they secure. We also document substantial variation in how expensive and profitable lenders are, without any evidence that expensive loans are associated with a better borrower experience. Despite many lenders operating in the U.S. mortgage market, limited borrower sophistication may provide lenders with market power.


THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGY ON BANK ECONOMIES OF SCALE FOR DEMAND DEPOSITS

Published: 3/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01351.x  |  Cited by: 10

Donnie L. Daniel, William A. Longbrake, Neil B. Murphy


Naïve Buying Diversification and Narrow Framing by Individual Investors

Published: 4/7/2023,  Volume: 78,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13222  |  Cited by: 17

JOHN GATHERGOOD, DAVID HIRSHLEIFER, DAVID LEAKE, HIROAKI SAKAGUCHI, NEIL STEWART

We provide the first tests to distinguish whether individual investors equally balance their overall portfolios (naïve portfolio diversification, NPD) or, in contrast, equally balance the values of same‐day purchases of multiple assets (naïve buying diversification, NBD). We find NBD in purchases of multiple stocks, and in mixed purchases of individual stocks and funds. In contrast, there is little evidence of NPD. Evidence suggests that NBD arises due to stock picking behavior and neglect of diversification. These findings suggest that behavioral finance theory should incorporate transaction, as well as portfolio, framing.


Nonstandard Errors

Published: 4/17/2024,  Volume: 79,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13337  |  Cited by: 103

ALBERT J. MENKVELD, ANNA DREBER, FELIX HOLZMEISTER, JUERGEN HUBER, MAGNUS JOHANNESSON, MICHAEL KIRCHLER, SEBASTIAN NEUSÜß, MICHAEL RAZEN, UTZ WEITZEL, DAVID ABAD‐DÍAZ, MENACHEM (MENI) ABUDY, TOBIAS ADRIAN, YACINE AIT‐SAHALIA, OLIVIER AKMANSOY, JAMIE T. ALCOCK, VITALI ALEXEEV, ARASH ALOOSH, LIVIA AMATO, DIEGO AMAYA, JAMES J. ANGEL, ALEJANDRO T. AVETIKIAN, AMADEUS BACH, EDWIN BAIDOO, GAETAN BAKALLI, LI BAO, ANDREA BARBON, OKSANA BASHCHENKO, PARAMPREET C. BINDRA, GEIR H. BJØNNES, JEFFREY R. BLACK, BERNARD S. BLACK, DIMITAR BOGOEV, SANTIAGO BOHORQUEZ CORREA, OLEG BONDARENKO, CHARLES S. BOS, CIRIL BOSCH‐ROSA, ELIE BOURI, CHRISTIAN BROWNLEES, ANNA CALAMIA, VIET NGA CAO, GUNTHER CAPELLE‐BLANCARD, LAURA M. CAPERA ROMERO, MASSIMILIANO CAPORIN, ALLEN CARRION, TOLGA CASKURLU, BIDISHA CHAKRABARTY, JIAN CHEN, MIKHAIL CHERNOV, WILLIAM CHEUNG, LUDWIG B. CHINCARINI, TARUN CHORDIA, SHEUNG‐CHI CHOW, BENJAMIN CLAPHAM, JEAN‐EDOUARD COLLIARD, CAROLE COMERTON‐FORDE, EDWARD CURRAN, THONG DAO, WALE DARE, RYAN J. DAVIES, RICCARDO DE BLASIS, GIANLUCA F. DE NARD, FANY DECLERCK, OLEG DEEV, HANS DEGRYSE, SOLOMON Y. DEKU, CHRISTOPHE DESAGRE, MATHIJS A. VAN DIJK, CHUKWUMA DIM, THOMAS DIMPFL, YUN JIANG DONG, PHILIP A. DRUMMOND, TOM DUDDA, TEODOR DUEVSKI, ARIADNA DUMITRESCU, TEODOR DYAKOV, ANNE HAUBO DYHRBERG, MICHAŁ DZIELIŃSKI, ASLI EKSI, IZIDIN EL KALAK, SASKIA TER ELLEN, NICOLAS EUGSTER, MARTIN D. D. EVANS, MICHAEL FARRELL, ESTER FELEZ‐VINAS, GERARDO FERRARA, EL MEHDI FERROUHI, ANDREA FLORI, JONATHAN T. FLUHARTY‐JAIDEE, SEAN D. V. FOLEY, KINGSLEY Y. L. FONG, THIERRY FOUCAULT, TATIANA FRANUS, FRANCESCO FRANZONI, BART FRIJNS, MICHAEL FRÖMMEL, SERVANNA M. FU, SASCHA C. FÜLLBRUNN, BAOQING GAN, GE GAO, THOMAS P. GEHRIG, ROLAND GEMAYEL, DIRK GERRITSEN, JAVIER GIL‐BAZO, DUDLEY GILDER, LAWRENCE R. GLOSTEN, THOMAS GOMEZ, ARSENY GORBENKO, JOACHIM GRAMMIG, VINCENT GRÉGOIRE, UFUK GÜÇBILMEZ, BJÖRN HAGSTRÖMER, JULIEN HAMBUCKERS, ERIK HAPNES, JEFFREY H. HARRIS, LAWRENCE HARRIS, SIMON HARTMANN, JEAN‐BAPTISTE HASSE, NIKOLAUS HAUTSCH, XUE‐ZHONG (TONY) HE, DAVIDSON HEATH, SIMON HEDIGER, TERRENCE HENDERSHOTT, ANN MARIE HIBBERT, ERIK HJALMARSSON, SETH A. HOELSCHER, PETER HOFFMANN, CRAIG W. HOLDEN, ALEX R. HORENSTEIN, WENQIAN HUANG, DA HUANG, CHRISTOPHE HURLIN, KONRAD ILCZUK, ALEXEY IVASHCHENKO, SUBRAMANIAN R. IYER, HOSSEIN JAHANSHAHLOO, NAJI JALKH, CHARLES M. JONES, SIMON JURKATIS, PETRI JYLHÄ, ANDREAS T. KAECK, GABRIEL KAISER, ARZÉ KARAM, EGLE KARMAZIENE, BERNHARD KASSNER, MARKKU KAUSTIA, EKATERINA KAZAK, FEARGHAL KEARNEY, VINCENT VAN KERVEL, SAAD A. KHAN, MARTA K. KHOMYN, TONY KLEIN, OLGA KLEIN, ALEXANDER KLOS, MICHAEL KOETTER, ALEKSEY KOLOKOLOV, ROBERT A. KORAJCZYK, ROMAN KOZHAN, JAN P. KRAHNEN, PAUL KUHLE, AMY KWAN, QUENTIN LAJAUNIE, F. Y. ERIC C. LAM, MARIE LAMBERT, HUGUES LANGLOIS, JENS LAUSEN, TOBIAS LAUTER, MARKUS LEIPPOLD, VLADIMIR LEVIN, YIJIE LI, HUI LI, CHEE YOONG LIEW, THOMAS LINDNER, OLIVER LINTON, JIACHENG LIU, ANQI LIU, GUILLERMO LLORENTE, MATTHIJS LOF, ARIEL LOHR, FRANCIS LONGSTAFF, ALEJANDRO LOPEZ‐LIRA, SHAWN MANKAD, NICOLA MANO, ALEXIS MARCHAL, CHARLES MARTINEAU, FRANCESCO MAZZOLA, DEBRAH MELOSO, MICHAEL G. MI, ROXANA MIHET, VIJAY MOHAN, SOPHIE MOINAS, DAVID MOORE, LIANGYI MU, DMITRIY MURAVYEV, DERMOT MURPHY, GABOR NESZVEDA, CHRISTIAN NEUMEIER, ULF NIELSSON, MAHENDRARAJAH NIMALENDRAN, SVEN NOLTE, LARS L. NORDEN, PETER O'NEILL, KHALED OBAID, BERNT A. ØDEGAARD, PER ÖSTBERG, EMILIANO PAGNOTTA, MARCUS PAINTER, STEFAN PALAN, IMON J. PALIT, ANDREAS PARK, ROBERTO PASCUAL, PAOLO PASQUARIELLO, LUBOS PASTOR, VINAY PATEL, ANDREW J. PATTON, NEIL D. PEARSON, LORIANA PELIZZON, MICHELE PELLI, MATTHIAS PELSTER, CHRISTOPHE PÉRIGNON, CAMERON PFIFFER, RICHARD PHILIP, TOMÁŠ PLÍHAL, PUNEET PRAKASH, OLIVER‐ALEXANDER PRESS, TINA PRODROMOU, MARCEL PROKOPCZUK, TALIS PUTNINS, YA QIAN, GAURAV RAIZADA, DAVID RAKOWSKI, ANGELO RANALDO, LUCA REGIS, STEFAN REITZ, THOMAS RENAULT, REX W. RENJIE, ROBERTO RENO, STEVEN J. RIDDIOUGH, KALLE RINNE, PAUL RINTAMÄKI, RYAN RIORDAN, THOMAS RITTMANNSBERGER, IÑAKI RODRÍGUEZ LONGARELA, DOMINIK ROESCH, LAVINIA ROGNONE, BRIAN ROSEMAN, IOANID ROŞU, SAURABH ROY, NICOLAS RUDOLF, STEPHEN R. RUSH, KHALADDIN RZAYEV, ALEKSANDRA A. RZEŹNIK, ANTHONY SANFORD, HARIKUMAR SANKARAN, ASANI SARKAR, LUCIO SARNO, OLIVIER SCAILLET, STEFAN SCHARNOWSKI, KLAUS R. SCHENK‐HOPPÉ, ANDREA SCHERTLER, MICHAEL SCHNEIDER, FLORIAN SCHROEDER, NORMAN SCHÜRHOFF, PHILIPP SCHUSTER, MARCO A. SCHWARZ, MARK S. SEASHOLES, NORMAN J. SEEGER, OR SHACHAR, ANDRIY SHKILKO, JESSICA SHUI, MARIO SIKIC, GIORGIA SIMION, LEE A. SMALES, PAUL SÖDERLIND, ELVIRA SOJLI, KONSTANTIN SOKOLOV, JANTJE SÖNKSEN, LAIMA SPOKEVICIUTE, DENITSA STEFANOVA, MARTI G. SUBRAHMANYAM, BARNABAS SZASZI, OLEKSANDR TALAVERA, YUEHUA TANG, NICK TAYLOR, WING WAH THAM, ERIK THEISSEN, JULIAN THIMME, IAN TONKS, HAI TRAN, LUCA TRAPIN, ANDERS B. TROLLE, M. ANDREEA VADUVA, GIORGIO VALENTE, ROBERT A. VAN NESS, AURELIO VASQUEZ, THANOS VEROUSIS, PATRICK VERWIJMEREN, ANDERS VILHELMSSON, GRIGORY VILKOV, VLADIMIR VLADIMIROV, SEBASTIAN VOGEL, STEFAN VOIGT, WOLF WAGNER, THOMAS WALTHER, PATRICK WEISS, MICHEL VAN DER WEL, INGRID M. WERNER, P. JOAKIM WESTERHOLM, CHRISTIAN WESTHEIDE, HANS C. WIKA, EVERT WIPPLINGER, MICHAEL WOLF, CHRISTIAN C. P. WOLFF, LEONARD WOLK, WING‐KEUNG WONG, JAN WRAMPELMEYER, ZHEN‐XING WU, SHUO XIA, DACHENG XIU, KE XU, CAIHONG XU, PRADEEP K. YADAV, JOSÉ YAGÜE, CHENG YAN, ANTTI YANG, WOONGSUN YOO, WENJIA YU, YIHE YU, SHIHAO YU, BART Z. YUESHEN, DARYA YUFEROVA, MARCIN ZAMOJSKI, ABALFAZL ZAREEI, STEFAN M. ZEISBERGER, LU ZHANG, S. SARAH ZHANG, XIAOYU ZHANG, LU ZHAO, ZHUO ZHONG, Z. IVY ZHOU, CHEN ZHOU, XINGYU S. ZHU, MARIUS ZOICAN, REMCO ZWINKELS

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.