The Journal of Finance

FELLOW OF THE AMERICAN FINANCE ASSOCIATION FOR 2009

Published: 9/28/2009,  Volume: 64,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01521_2.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard H. Thaler

How Much Is Investor Autonomy Worth?

Published: 8/2002,  Volume: 57,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/1540-6261.00472  |  Cited by: 187

Shlomo Benartzi, Richard H. Thaler

There is a worldwide trend towards defined contribution savings plans, where investors are often able to select their own portfolios. How much is this freedom of choice worth? We present retirement investors with information about the distribution of outcomes they could expect to obtain from the portfolios they picked for themselves, and the same information for the median portfolio selected by their peers. A majority of our survey participants actually prefer the median portfolio to the one they picked for themselves. We investigate various explanations for these findings and offer some evidence that the results are partly attributable to the fact that investors do not have well‐defined preferences.

Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?

Published: 7/1997,  Volume: 52,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02723.x  |  Cited by: 621

SHLOMO BENARTZI, RONI MICHAELY, RICHARD THALER

Many dividend theories imply that changes in dividends have information content about the future earnings of the firm. We investigate this implication and find only limited support for it. Firms that increase dividends in year 0 have experienced significant earnings increases in years −1 and 0, but show no subsequent unexpected earnings growth. Also, the size of the dividend increase does not predict future earnings. Firms that cut dividends in year 0 have experienced a reduction in earnings in year 0 and in year −1, but these firms go on to show significant increases in earnings in year 1. However, consistent with Lintner's model on dividend policy, firms that increase dividends are less likely than nonchanging firms to experience a drop in future earnings. Thus, their increase in concurrent earnings can be said to be somewhat “permanent.” In spite of the lack of future earnings growth, firms that increase dividends have significant (though modest) positive excess returns for the following three years.

Does the Stock Market Overreact?

Published: 7/1985,  Volume: 40,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x  |  Cited by: 4135

WERNER F. M. De BONDT, RICHARD THALER

Research in experimental psychology suggests that, in violation of Bayes' rule, most people tend to “overreact” to unexpected and dramatic news events. This study of market efficiency investigates whether such behavior affects stock prices. The empirical evidence, based on CRSP monthly return data, is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis. Substantial weak form market inefficiencies are discovered. The results also shed new light on the January returns earned by prior “winners” and “losers.” Portfolios of losers experience exceptionally large January returns as late as five years after portfolio formation.

Further Evidence On Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonality

Published: 7/1987,  Volume: 42,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04569.x  |  Cited by: 1181

WERNER F. M. De BONDT, RICHARD H. THALER

In a previous paper, we found systematic price reversals for stocks that experience extreme long‐term gains or losses: Past losers significantly outperform past winners. We interpreted this finding as consistent with the behavioral hypothesis of investor overreaction. In this follow‐up paper, additional evidence is reported that supports the overreaction hypothesis and that is inconsistent with two alternative hypotheses based on firm size and differences in risk, as measured by CAPM‐betas. The seasonal pattern of returns is also examined. Excess returns in January are related to both short‐term and long‐term past performance, as well as to the previous year market return.

Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?

Published: 6/1995,  Volume: 50,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04796.x  |  Cited by: 708

RONI MICHAELY, RICHARD H. THALER, KENT L. WOMACK

This article investigates market reactions to initiations and omissions of cash dividend payments. Consistent with prior literature we find that the magnitude of short‐run price reactions to omissions are greater than for initiations. In the year following the announcements, prices continue to drift in the same direction, though the drift following omissions is stronger and more robust. This post‐dividend initiation/omission price drift is distinct from and more pronounced than that following earnings surprises. A trading rule employing both samples earns positive returns in 22 out of 25 years. We find little evidence for clientele shifts in either sample.

Caveat Compounder: A Warning about Using the Daily CRSP Equal‐Weighted Index to Compute Long‐Run Excess Returns

Published: 2/1998,  Volume: 53,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.165353  |  Cited by: 92

Linda Canina, Roni Michaely, Richard Thaler, Kent Womack

This paper issues a warning that compounding daily returns of the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) equal‐weighted index can lead to surprisingly large biases. The differences between the monthly returns compounded from the daily tapes and the monthly CRSP equal‐weighted indices is almost 0.43 percent per month, or 6 percent per year. This difference amounts to one‐third of the average monthly return, and is large enough to reverse the conclusions of a paper using the daily tape to compute the return on the benchmark portfolio. We also investigate the sources of these biases and suggest several alternative strategies to avoid them.

Investor Sentiment and the Closed‐End Fund Puzzle

Published: 3/1991,  Volume: 46,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03746.x  |  Cited by: 908

CHARLES M. C. LEE, ANDREI SHLEIFER, RICHARD H. THALER

This paper examines the proposition that fluctuations in discounts of closed‐end funds are driven by changes in individual investor sentiment. The theory implies that discounts on various funds move together, that new funds get started when seasoned funds sell at a premium or a small discount, and that discounts are correlated with prices of other securities affected by the same investor sentiment. The evidence supports these predictions. In particular, we find that both closed‐end funds and small stocks tend to be held by individual investors, and that the discounts on closed‐end funds narrow when small stocks do well.

Summing Up

Published: 6/1993,  Volume: 48,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04744.x  |  Cited by: 12

Navin Chopra, Charles M. C. Lee, Andrei Shleifer, Richard H. Thaler

Yes, Discounts on Closed‐End Funds Are a Sentiment Index

Published: 6/1993,  Volume: 48,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04742.x  |  Cited by: 62

NAVIN CHOPRA, CHARLES M. C. LEE, ANDREI SHLEIFER, RICHARD H. THALER

Financial Expertise as an Arms Race

Published: 9/12/2012,  Volume: 67,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01771.x  |  Cited by: 108

VINCENT GLODE, RICHARD C. GREEN, RICHARD LOWERY

We show that firms intermediating trade have incentives to overinvest in financial expertise. In our model, expertise improves firms’ ability to estimate value when trading a security. Expertise creates asymmetric information, which, under normal circumstances, works to the advantage of the expert as it deters opportunistic bargaining by counterparties. This advantage is neutralized in equilibrium, however, by offsetting investments by competitors. Moreover, when volatility rises the adverse selection created by expertise triggers breakdowns in liquidity, destroying gains to trade and thus the benefits that firms hope to gain through high levels of expertise.

DISCUSSION

Published: 7/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03652.x  |  Cited by: 0

RICHARD RUBACK

IMPUTED RENT OF OWNER‐OCCUPIED DWELLINGS UNDER THE INCOME TAX

Published: 12/1960,  Volume: 15,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1960.tb02766.x  |  Cited by: 19

Richard Goode

MONETARY EQUILIBRIUM AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVE FLOWS IN AUSTRALIA

Published: 12/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03133.x  |  Cited by: 6

Richard Zecher

BALANCE‐OF‐PAYMENTS PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Published: 3/1954,  Volume: 9,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1954.tb01207.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Perlman

INTEREST RATES ON MONETARY ASSETS AND COMMODITY PRICE INDEX CHANGES

Published: 5/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb00958.x  |  Cited by: 56

Richard Roll

AMBIGUITY WHEN PERFORMANCE IS MEASURED BY THE SECURITIES MARKET LINE

Published: 9/1978,  Volume: 33,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02047.x  |  Cited by: 291

Richard Roll

THE REFUNDING DECISION IN NEAR PERFECT MARKETS

Published: 12/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03128.x  |  Cited by: 2

Richard Kolodny

A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid‐Ask Spread in an Efficient Market

Published: 9/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03897.x  |  Cited by: 1396

RICHARD ROLL

In an efficient market, the fundamental value of a security fluctuates randomly. However, trading costs induce negative serial dependence in successive observed market price changes. In fact, given market efficiency, the effective bid‐ask spread can be measured by where “cov” is the first‐order serial covariance of price changes. This implicit measure of the bid‐ask spread is derived formally and is shown empirically to be closely related to firm size.

CORPORATE BORROWING DECISIONS AND THE EVALUATION OF INTEREST RATE FORECASTS*

Published: 9/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03113.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Kolodny

A Possible Explanation of the Small Firm Effect

Published: 9/1981,  Volume: 36,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb04890.x  |  Cited by: 229

RICHARD ROLL

Recent empirical studies have found that small listed firms yield higher average returns than large firms even when their riskiness is equal. The riskiness of small firms, however, has been improperly measured. Apparently, the error is due to auto‐correlation in portfolio returns caused by infrequent trading. Other anomalous predictors of riskadjusted returns, such as price/earnings ratios and dividend yields, may also derive some of their apparent power from this spurious source.

A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk

Published: 12/1997,  Volume: 52,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02748.x  |  Cited by: 291

RICHARD STANTON

This article presents a technique for nonparametrically estimating continuous‐time diffusion processes that are observed at discrete intervals. We illustrate the methodology by using daily three and six month Treasury Bill data, from January 1965 to July 1995, to estimate the drift and diffusion of the short rate, and the market price of interest rate risk. While the estimated diffusion is similar to that estimated by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (1992), there is evidence of substantial nonlinearity in the drift. This is close to zero for low and medium interest rates, but mean reversion increases sharply at higher interest rates.

THE AMERICAN CAPITAL MARKET, 1846–1914: A STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC POLICY ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT*

Published: 9/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00579.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard Sylla

Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices

Published: 3/1992,  Volume: 47,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb03977.x  |  Cited by: 502

RICHARD ROLL

Stock Price Indices are compared across countries in an attempt to explain why they exhibit such disparate behavior. Three separate explanatory influences are empirically documented. First, part of the behavior can be attributed to a technical aspect of index construction; some indices are more diversified than others. Second, each country's industrial structure plays a major role in explaining stock price behavior. Third, for the majority of countries, a portion of national equity index behavior can be ascribed to exchange rate behavior. Exchange rates explain a significant portion of common currency denominated national index returns, although the amount explained by exchange rates is less than the amount explained by industrial structure for most countries.

Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure

Published: 12/1983,  Volume: 38,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03845.x  |  Cited by: 180

RICHARD CASTANIAS

This study finds shortcomings in empirical tests of the capital structure irrelevance hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that firms choose value maximizing mixes of debt and equity on account of bankruptcy costs and the tax deductibility of interest payments. Based upon the cross‐sectional implications of the tax shelter‐bankruptcy cost hypothesis, an alternative test of the irrelevance hypothesis is performed. The test examines the relationship between failure rates and leverage ratios for 36 lines of business. The results are inconsistent with the irrelevance hypothesis.

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL PRICING OF RISKY ASSETS

Published: 5/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03287.x  |  Cited by: 134

Richard Stehle

SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THE INCIDENCE OF THE CORPORATION INCOME TAX (Discussion)

Published: 6/1951,  Volume: 6,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1951.tb04458.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Goode

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION AND COMMERCIAL BANK EARNINGS*

Published: 12/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01762.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Bond

R2

Published: 7/1988,  Volume: 43,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04591.x  |  Cited by: 618

RICHARD ROLL

Even with hindsight, the ability to explain stock price changes is modest. s were calculated for the returns of large stocks as explained by systematic economic influences, by the returns on other stocks in the same industry, and by public firm‐specific news events. The average adjusted is only about .35 with monthly data and .20 with daily data. There is little relation between explanatory power and either the firm's size or its industry. There is little improvement in from eliminating all dates surrounding news reports in the financial press. However, the sample kurtosis is quite different when such news events are eliminated, thereby revealing a mixture of return distributions. Non‐news dates also indicate the presence of a distributional mixture, perhaps due to traders acting on private information.

EVIDENCE ON THE “GROWTH‐OPTIMUM” MODEL

Published: 6/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01378.x  |  Cited by: 17

Richard Roll

INVESTMENT DIVERSIFICATION AND BOND MATURITY

Published: 3/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00588.x  |  Cited by: 34

Richard Roll

RETIREMENT OF NON‐CALLABLE PREFERRED STOCK

Published: 12/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00875.x  |  Cited by: 3

Richard A. Stevenson

TRADING IN WARRANTS BY MECHANICAL SYSTEMS

Published: 3/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03244.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard J. Rogalski

DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1969,  Volume: 24,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1969.tb01686.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard S. Bower

THE POSTWAR RISE IN THE VELOCITY OF MONEY A SECTORAL ANALYSIS*

Published: 12/1961,  Volume: 16,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb04235.x  |  Cited by: 6

Richard T. Selden

INTEREST RATES, CONTRACT TERMS, AND THE ALLOCATION OF MORTGAGE FUNDS*

Published: 3/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04249.x  |  Cited by: 2

Richard F. Muth

DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1980,  Volume: 35,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb02175.x  |  Cited by: 0

Scott F. Richard

MONEY CREATION AND THE THEORY OF THE BANKING FIRM

Published: 3/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb00024.x  |  Cited by: 23

Richard E. Towey

AN ANALYSIS OF CREDIT INSURANCE*

Published: 3/1957,  Volume: 12,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1957.tb04118.x  |  Cited by: 0

Mark Richard Greene

Usury Laws and Consumer Credit: A Note

Published: 9/1983,  Volume: 38,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb02299.x  |  Cited by: 16

RICHARD L. PETERSON

EXPECTATIONS, RISK, AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES*

Published: 6/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00545.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard C. Sutch

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION AND COMMERCIAL BANK EARNINGS

Published: 3/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00587.x  |  Cited by: 5

Richard E. Bond

A Note on Capital Budgeting Techniques and the Reinvestment Rate

Published: 12/1979,  Volume: 34,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb00070.x  |  Cited by: 10

RICHARD L. MEYER

A General Diversification Theorem: A Note

Published: 6/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb02327.x  |  Cited by: 13

RICHARD D. MacMINN

COMMENT ON “PUTS AND CALLS: A FACTUAL SURVEY”

Published: 3/1959,  Volume: 14,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1959.tb00486.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard J. Kruizenga

U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1950–60*

Published: 12/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04348.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard A. Ward

Benchmark Portfolio Inefficiency and Deviations from the Security Market Line

Published: 6/1986,  Volume: 41,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb05037.x  |  Cited by: 23

RICHARD C. GREEN

This paper theoretically evaluates the robustness of the Security Market Line relationship when the market proxy employed is not mean‐variance efficient. The analysis focuses on the behavior of the “benchmark errors,” the deviations of assets and portfolios from the Security Market Line. First, we characterize how the location of an asset in mean‐variance space determines its benchmark error. Then the continuity properties of the benchmark errors are studied. The results indicate that the magnitudes of the errors exhibit continuous but not uniformly continuous behaviors. The relative rankings based on deviations from the Security Market Line, however, exhibit some severe discontinuities. In fact, these can be exactly reversed for two proxies arbitrarily close in mean‐variance space.

SOME VALUE‐ADDED TAX IMPACTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF PRODUCERS

Published: 9/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00848.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard W. Lindholm

DISCUSSION

Published: 3/1950,  Volume: 5,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1950.tb00098.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard C. Youngdahl

INITIAL AND INVESTMENT ALLOWANCES UNDER THE BRITISH INCOME TAX AND COUNTER‐CYCLICAL POLICY*

Published: 9/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04304.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Miller Bird