The Journal of Finance

Explaining Forward Exchange Bias…Intraday

Published: 9/1995,  Volume: 50,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb04061.x  |  Cited by: 3

RICHARD K. LYONS, ANDREW K. ROSE

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of fixed‐rate crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the European Monetary System, we find this prediction is borne out.

Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment

Published: 6/1998,  Volume: 53,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00045  |  Cited by: 187

Takatoshi Ito, Richard K. Lyons, Michael T. Melvin

We provide evidence of private information in the foreign exchange market. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch‐return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules. We then exploit microstructure theory to discriminate between the two alternatives: private information and mispricing. Four key results support the predictions of private‐information models. Three of these involve changes in the intraday volatility U‐shape. The fourth is that opening trade causes mispricing's share in variance to fall.

AMBIGUITY WHEN PERFORMANCE IS MEASURED BY THE SECURITIES MARKET LINE

Published: 9/1978,  Volume: 33,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02047.x  |  Cited by: 300

Richard Roll

Financial Expertise as an Arms Race

Published: 9/12/2012,  Volume: 67,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01771.x  |  Cited by: 109

VINCENT GLODE, RICHARD C. GREEN, RICHARD LOWERY

We show that firms intermediating trade have incentives to overinvest in financial expertise. In our model, expertise improves firms’ ability to estimate value when trading a security. Expertise creates asymmetric information, which, under normal circumstances, works to the advantage of the expert as it deters opportunistic bargaining by counterparties. This advantage is neutralized in equilibrium, however, by offsetting investments by competitors. Moreover, when volatility rises the adverse selection created by expertise triggers breakdowns in liquidity, destroying gains to trade and thus the benefits that firms hope to gain through high levels of expertise.

Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure

Published: 12/1983,  Volume: 38,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb03845.x  |  Cited by: 184

RICHARD CASTANIAS

This study finds shortcomings in empirical tests of the capital structure irrelevance hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that firms choose value maximizing mixes of debt and equity on account of bankruptcy costs and the tax deductibility of interest payments. Based upon the cross‐sectional implications of the tax shelter‐bankruptcy cost hypothesis, an alternative test of the irrelevance hypothesis is performed. The test examines the relationship between failure rates and leverage ratios for 36 lines of business. The results are inconsistent with the irrelevance hypothesis.

A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid‐Ask Spread in an Efficient Market

Published: 9/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03897.x  |  Cited by: 1409

RICHARD ROLL

In an efficient market, the fundamental value of a security fluctuates randomly. However, trading costs induce negative serial dependence in successive observed market price changes. In fact, given market efficiency, the effective bid‐ask spread can be measured by where “cov” is the first‐order serial covariance of price changes. This implicit measure of the bid‐ask spread is derived formally and is shown empirically to be closely related to firm size.

DISCUSSION

Published: 7/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03652.x  |  Cited by: 0

RICHARD RUBACK

MONETARY EQUILIBRIUM AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVE FLOWS IN AUSTRALIA

Published: 12/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03133.x  |  Cited by: 6

Richard Zecher

THE REFUNDING DECISION IN NEAR PERFECT MARKETS

Published: 12/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03128.x  |  Cited by: 2

Richard Kolodny

A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk

Published: 12/1997,  Volume: 52,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb02748.x  |  Cited by: 295

RICHARD STANTON

This article presents a technique for nonparametrically estimating continuous‐time diffusion processes that are observed at discrete intervals. We illustrate the methodology by using daily three and six month Treasury Bill data, from January 1965 to July 1995, to estimate the drift and diffusion of the short rate, and the market price of interest rate risk. While the estimated diffusion is similar to that estimated by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (1992), there is evidence of substantial nonlinearity in the drift. This is close to zero for low and medium interest rates, but mean reversion increases sharply at higher interest rates.

IMPUTED RENT OF OWNER‐OCCUPIED DWELLINGS UNDER THE INCOME TAX

Published: 12/1960,  Volume: 15,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1960.tb02766.x  |  Cited by: 19

Richard Goode

BALANCE‐OF‐PAYMENTS PROBLEMS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Published: 3/1954,  Volume: 9,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1954.tb01207.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Perlman

INTEREST RATES ON MONETARY ASSETS AND COMMODITY PRICE INDEX CHANGES

Published: 5/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb00958.x  |  Cited by: 56

Richard Roll

CORPORATE BORROWING DECISIONS AND THE EVALUATION OF INTEREST RATE FORECASTS*

Published: 9/1974,  Volume: 29,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03113.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Kolodny

Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices

Published: 3/1992,  Volume: 47,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb03977.x  |  Cited by: 506

RICHARD ROLL

Stock Price Indices are compared across countries in an attempt to explain why they exhibit such disparate behavior. Three separate explanatory influences are empirically documented. First, part of the behavior can be attributed to a technical aspect of index construction; some indices are more diversified than others. Second, each country's industrial structure plays a major role in explaining stock price behavior. Third, for the majority of countries, a portion of national equity index behavior can be ascribed to exchange rate behavior. Exchange rates explain a significant portion of common currency denominated national index returns, although the amount explained by exchange rates is less than the amount explained by industrial structure for most countries.

THE AMERICAN CAPITAL MARKET, 1846–1914: A STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC POLICY ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT*

Published: 9/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00579.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard Sylla

A Possible Explanation of the Small Firm Effect

Published: 9/1981,  Volume: 36,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb04890.x  |  Cited by: 230

RICHARD ROLL

Recent empirical studies have found that small listed firms yield higher average returns than large firms even when their riskiness is equal. The riskiness of small firms, however, has been improperly measured. Apparently, the error is due to auto‐correlation in portfolio returns caused by infrequent trading. Other anomalous predictors of riskadjusted returns, such as price/earnings ratios and dividend yields, may also derive some of their apparent power from this spurious source.

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL PRICING OF RISKY ASSETS

Published: 5/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03287.x  |  Cited by: 136

Richard Stehle

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION AND COMMERCIAL BANK EARNINGS*

Published: 12/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb01762.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Bond

R2

Published: 7/1988,  Volume: 43,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04591.x  |  Cited by: 632

RICHARD ROLL

Even with hindsight, the ability to explain stock price changes is modest. s were calculated for the returns of large stocks as explained by systematic economic influences, by the returns on other stocks in the same industry, and by public firm‐specific news events. The average adjusted is only about .35 with monthly data and .20 with daily data. There is little relation between explanatory power and either the firm's size or its industry. There is little improvement in from eliminating all dates surrounding news reports in the financial press. However, the sample kurtosis is quite different when such news events are eliminated, thereby revealing a mixture of return distributions. Non‐news dates also indicate the presence of a distributional mixture, perhaps due to traders acting on private information.

EVIDENCE ON THE “GROWTH‐OPTIMUM” MODEL

Published: 6/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01378.x  |  Cited by: 17

Richard Roll

INVESTMENT DIVERSIFICATION AND BOND MATURITY

Published: 3/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00588.x  |  Cited by: 40

Richard Roll

SOME CONSIDERATIONS ON THE INCIDENCE OF THE CORPORATION INCOME TAX (Discussion)

Published: 6/1951,  Volume: 6,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1951.tb04458.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Goode

EXPECTATIONS, RISK, AND THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES*

Published: 6/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00545.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard C. Sutch

DEPOSIT COMPOSITION AND COMMERCIAL BANK EARNINGS

Published: 3/1971,  Volume: 26,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1971.tb00587.x  |  Cited by: 5

Richard E. Bond

A Note on Capital Budgeting Techniques and the Reinvestment Rate

Published: 12/1979,  Volume: 34,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb00070.x  |  Cited by: 10

RICHARD L. MEYER

A General Diversification Theorem: A Note

Published: 6/1984,  Volume: 39,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb02327.x  |  Cited by: 13

RICHARD D. MacMINN

AN ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF COST‐OF‐CAPITAL CONCEPTS IN NATURAL‐GAS‐PIPELINE RATE REGULATION*

Published: 9/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00858.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard A. Oppedahl

Macroinformation and the Variability of Stock Market Prices

Published: 5/1979,  Volume: 34,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb02107.x  |  Cited by: 43

RICHARD P. CASTANIAS

SOME VALUE‐ADDED TAX IMPACTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS OF PRODUCERS

Published: 9/1968,  Volume: 23,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00848.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard W. Lindholm

DISCUSSION

Published: 3/1950,  Volume: 5,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1950.tb00098.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard C. Youngdahl

RETIREMENT OF NON‐CALLABLE PREFERRED STOCK

Published: 12/1970,  Volume: 25,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00875.x  |  Cited by: 3

Richard A. Stevenson

TRADING IN WARRANTS BY MECHANICAL SYSTEMS

Published: 3/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03244.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard J. Rogalski

DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1969,  Volume: 24,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1969.tb01686.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard S. Bower

U.S. MONETARY POLICY AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1950–60*

Published: 12/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04348.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard A. Ward

Benchmark Portfolio Inefficiency and Deviations from the Security Market Line

Published: 6/1986,  Volume: 41,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb05037.x  |  Cited by: 23

RICHARD C. GREEN

This paper theoretically evaluates the robustness of the Security Market Line relationship when the market proxy employed is not mean‐variance efficient. The analysis focuses on the behavior of the “benchmark errors,” the deviations of assets and portfolios from the Security Market Line. First, we characterize how the location of an asset in mean‐variance space determines its benchmark error. Then the continuity properties of the benchmark errors are studied. The results indicate that the magnitudes of the errors exhibit continuous but not uniformly continuous behaviors. The relative rankings based on deviations from the Security Market Line, however, exhibit some severe discontinuities. In fact, these can be exactly reversed for two proxies arbitrarily close in mean‐variance space.

An Analysis of Countercyclical Policies of The FHLBB

Published: 3/1981,  Volume: 36,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb03535.x  |  Cited by: 1

RICHARD J. KENT

Three policies of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, the Specially Priced Advances Program in 1970–1, a program of advances at a reduced interest rate in 1974, and changes in the minimum liquidity ratio, are analyzed. A model of portfolio allocation is developed and estimated for savings and loan associations. Most of the net increase in advances borrowed under the first two programs have not been lent in the mortgage market. Reductions in the minimum liquidity requirement have resulted in an increase in mortgage lending, but substantial effects are not felt until a year after the liquidity requirement is reduced.

POLICIES AND PRACTICES IN THE MANAGEMENT OF ASSET LIQUIDITY RESERVES OF SMALL AND MEDIUM COMMERCIAL BANKS IN WISCONSIN*

Published: 3/1963,  Volume: 18,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1963.tb01625.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard A. Chamberlin

MARKET TESTS OF CAPITAL ADEQUACY OF LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS

Published: 6/1976,  Volume: 31,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01929.x  |  Cited by: 40

Richard H. Pettway

THE POSTWAR RISE IN THE VELOCITY OF MONEY A SECTORAL ANALYSIS*

Published: 12/1961,  Volume: 16,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb04235.x  |  Cited by: 6

Richard T. Selden

Forward Markets, Stock Markets, and the Theory of the Firm

Published: 12/1987,  Volume: 42,  Issue: 5  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04359.x  |  Cited by: 17

RICHARD D. MacMINN

This paper models a competitive financial market economy in which there are forward markets as well as stock and bond markets. Although there are separation theorems in the stock and forward markets literatures, this analysis shows that neither separation theorem survives in this integrated financial market economy. Next, the analysis shows that the separation results hold and are equivalent if the manager has an appropriate compensation package. Then the model is modified to allow for depreciation charges and tax credits. A positive theory of hedging is developed that shows that the corporation can preserve deductions and credits by hedging and so increase corporate value.

AN ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF FOREST TAXATION: THEIR EFFECTS ON REAL FOREST INVESTMENT AND SOCIAL VALUE YIELDS NOT SUBJECT TO CAPTURE BY THE OWNER*

Published: 9/1962,  Volume: 17,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1962.tb04305.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard W. Tresteail

BANKING STRUCTURE AND BANK PERFORMANCE: A CASE STUDY OF THREE SMALL MARKET AREAS*

Published: 9/1965,  Volume: 20,  Issue: 3  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1965.tb02925.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard S. Wallace

RISK‐PREMIUM CURVES FOR DIFFERENT CLASSES OF LONG‐TERM SECURITIES, 1950–1966: COMMENT

Published: 9/1972,  Volume: 27,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1972.tb01327.x  |  Cited by: 1

Richard W. McEnally

Beating the Foreign Exchange Market

Published: 3/1986,  Volume: 41,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1986.tb04497.x  |  Cited by: 287

RICHARD J. SWEENEY

Filter rule profits found in foreign exchange markets in the early days of the current managed float persist in later periods, as shown by statistical tests developed and implemented here. The test is consistent with, but independent of, a wide variety of asset pricing models. The profits found cannot be explained by risk if risk premia are constant over time. Inclusion of the home‐foreign interest rate differential in computing profits has little effect on the comparison of filter returns to those of buy‐and‐hold.

DISCUSSION

Published: 5/1981,  Volume: 36,  Issue: 2  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1981.tb00473.x  |  Cited by: 2

RICHARD L. PETERSON

REPLY

Published: 3/1977,  Volume: 32,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1977.tb03256.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard L. Norgaard

CORPORATE INVESTMENT, DIVIDENDS, AND FINANCE: A SIMULTANEOUS APPROACH*

Published: 9/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 4  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01438.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard R. Spies

ADMINISTERED PRICES AND THE MARKET REACTION: THE CASE OF URBAN CORE PROPERTY INSURANCE

Published: 3/1973,  Volume: 28,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01352.x  |  Cited by: 2

Richard F. Syron

DYNAMIC OPTION MODELS: IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION, AND INTERPRETATION OF SPECULATIVE MARKET INTERRELATIONSHIPS*

Published: 3/1975,  Volume: 30,  Issue: 1  |  DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb03181.x  |  Cited by: 0

Richard Jerome Rogalski